黄海绿潮发展规模影响因子及预测方法研究  

Influencing factors and prediction method of the green tide scale in the Yellow Sea

作　　者：焦艳 商杰[1,2] 高松 吴玲娟[1,2] 李杰 于清溪[1,3] 赵一丁 付迪[1,2] JIAO Yan;SHANG Jie;GAO Song;WU Ling-juan;LI Jie;YU Qing-xi;ZHAO Yi-ding;FU Di(Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environment and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Qingdao 266061,China;North China Sea Marine Forecast Center of State Oceanic Administration,Qingdao 266061,China;North China Sea Data&Information Service of State Oceanic Administration,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,山东青岛266061 [2]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266061 [3]国家海洋局北海信息中心,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋科学》2022年第5期65-73,共9页Marine Sciences

基　　金：北海局海洋科技项目(2018B04);山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021MD122)。

摘　　要：黄海绿潮自2008年起连年暴发,对沿海地区的海上活动带来严重影响,不仅造成了巨大的经济损失,也破坏了近海海洋生态环境。本文基于绿潮多源监测数据和大气海洋再分析资料,对绿潮规模的年际变化及其影响因子进行分析研究。结果表明, 2008至2019年间黄海绿潮平均分布面积和覆盖面积分别为40 000 km^(2)和620 km^(2);影响绿潮规模的关键因子为绿潮生成区的海温和纬向海流,由此建立的绿潮分布面积回归模型与观测值相关系数达到0.80;欧亚遥相关波列、太平洋年代际振荡和厄尔尼诺与南方涛动可能是影响绿潮规模年际变化的大尺度环流因子。The green tide has been occurring yearly in the Yellow Sea since 2008,seriously impacting the maritime activities in the coastal areas.It caused huge economic losses and destroyed the coastal marine ecological environment.In this study,the interannual variation of the green tide scale and its influencing factors are analyzed based on multi-source monitoring and reanalysis data.The results indicated that the average distribution and coverage areas of the green tide from 2008 to 2019 are 40,000 and 620 km^(2),respectively.The key factors affecting the scale of the green tide are sea surface temperture and zonal current in the green tide generation area,and the correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed values is 0.80.Moreover,Eurasian teleconnection wave train,Pacific decadal oscillation,and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the possible large-scale factors influencing the interannual variation of the green tide scale.

关 键 词：黄海绿潮 分布面积 影响因子 预测模型 大气环流异常 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]