强震孕育发生的大陆活动地块理论未来发展与强震预测探索  

Physical basis for prediction of continental strong earthquakes:Development and prospect of active tectonic block theory

作　　者：郑文俊 张竹琪[3] 郝明[4] 陈九辉[3] 王庆良[4] Wenjun Zheng;Zhuqi Zhang;Ming Hao;Jiuhui Chen;Qingliang Wang(Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geodynamics and Geohazards,School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China;State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics,Institute of Geology,Lhasa National Geophysical Observation and Resaerch Station,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;The Second Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地球科学与工程学院,广东省地球动力作用与地质灾害重点实验室,广州510275 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海519082 [3]中国地震局地质研究所,地震动力学国家重点实验室,西藏拉萨地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站,北京100029 [4]中国地震局第二监测中心,西安710054

出　　处：《科学通报》2022年第13期1352-1361,共10页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500100)资助。

摘　　要：1地震预测预报研究的学术高地——强震孕育发生的大陆活动地块理论框架建立地震作为一种重大自然灾害,直接影响着人类生活和自然环境.20世纪中叶板块构造学说的建立,对发生在板块边缘约占全球80%地震的分布特征、形成机制、活动规律、动力过程等给出了合理解释,但是却很难解释发生在远离板块边缘,特别是大陆板块内部成灾性最大的大型、特大型地震[1,2].Proposed by Chinese scientists on the basis of a synthetic and progressive view of active tectonics,regional seismicity,present kinematics of the crust,and geophysical investigations,the hypothesis that the strong earthquake activity in continental China is controlled by the movement and deformation of active tectonic blocks explains the spatial distribution of strong earthquakes.More specifically,this hypothesis predicts that future strong earthquakes will only occur at favorable locations within the block boundary zones.Through the recent two decades,as a basis for understanding the tectonic activity of continental China and the prediction of strong continental earthquakes,the theoretical framework of the active tectonic block hypothesis has been developed and improved.Moreover,a theoretical model of active tectonic blocks(version 1.0)was consequently constructed,contributing to the transformation from probabilistic prediction toward physical prediction.Earthquake prediction,especially the prediction of devastating earthquakes within continents,has been a most particularly scientific problem worldwide for a long period of time,enticing scientists to make great efforts in corresponding research and thus produce various prediction models and theories.The practice of earthquake prediction as a whole is experiencing transformation in four aspects:from empirical prediction to physical prediction,from deterministic and qualitative prediction to probabilistic and quantitative prediction,from single discipline-based prediction to multidiscipline-based prediction,and from prediction for warning to prediction for protection.The active tectonic block model version 1.0 assumes that strong continental earthquakes concentrate at the active tectonic block boundary zones,which has been evidenced by most of the strong earthquakes in continental China during the past in recent 20 years.As these events became observable in a more exact and detailed way,the content of the active tectonic block model version 1.0 was also enriched.H

关 键 词：板块构造学说 大陆板块 板块边缘 活动地块 强震预测 强震孕育 地震预测预报研究 重大自然灾害 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]