“一带一路”区域近57 a干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征  

Drought events characteristics and its population exposure in the Belt and Road region during 1960 to 2016

作　　者：周舟 王艳君[1] 黄金龙[1] 吕嫣冉 姜彤[1,2] ZHOU Zhou;WANG Yanjun;HUANG Jinlong;Lü Yanran;JIANG Tong(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京210044 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《气象科学》2022年第1期61-69,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41971023);科技部基础资源调查专项(2018FY100501)。

摘　　要：基于东英吉利大学气候研究所全球逐月降水与潜在蒸散发格点数据集,以标准化降水蒸散指数为干旱指标,采用改进的强度—面积—持续时间极端事件识别方法,对“一带一路”区域干旱事件及其人口暴露度特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)1960—2016年“一带一路”区域呈现变干趋势,至1992年有所缓解,空间上显著干旱区域主要分布在沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、蒙古、中国等。(2)区域年均发生干旱事件89次,以持续1—2个月干旱事件为主,占总事件频次的82%;年均总影响面积约0.92×10^(8)km^(2),以持续3—5个月的干旱事件影响面积最大,约占年均总影响面积的44.8%;干旱事件最强中心强度均达到极端干旱强度。(3)持续3—5和6—8个月干旱事件频次、影响面积和事件最强中心强度均呈增加趋势,需引起重视。(4)区域干旱事件的人口暴露度多年均值为5.43亿人,不同持续时间干旱事件的人口暴露度均显著增加,尤其2000年以后,年均人口暴露度达7.88亿人,较多年均值高出45%。Based on the global monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration grid data set of the Climate Research Institute of the University of East Anglia,the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)was used as the drought index,and the Improved Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD)method was adopted to analyze the Belt and Road region drought events and population exposure characteristics.Results show that:(1)during 1960 to 2016,the Belt and Road region is found under a trend of drying,but the drought is eased since 1992,and the spatially significant arid regions are mainly distributed over the Saudi Arabia,Iran,Mongolia,China and other countries.(2)In the region,drought events occur 89 times annually,mainly lasting for 1-2 months,accounting for 82%of the total event frequency;the average annual affected area is about 0.92×10^(8)km^(2),and the drought events lasting for 3-5 months usually affect the largest area,which accounts for about 44.8%of the total affected areas.The strongest central intensity of drought events reaches extreme drought intensity.(3)The frequency,affected area and intensity of the strongest center of drought events in the 3-5 and 6-8 consecutive months show an increasing trend,which requires attention.(4)The multi-year average population exposure of regional drought events is 543 million and the population exposure of drought events of different duration increases significantly.Especially after 2000,the average annual population exposure reaches 788 million,which is 45%higher than the multi-year average.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 干旱事件 人口暴露度 IAD方法 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]