长江流域可能最大降水的时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：刘延志 李佳佳[1] LIU Yanzhi;LI Jiajia(College of Geographic Sciences,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学地理科学学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2022年第10期150-154,175,共6页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：基于长江流域188个气象站1963—2018年的日降水观测数据,采用改进的Mann-Kendall(MMK)方法检验流域内各站点年最大日降水量(AMDP)的变化趋势,利用改进的Hershfield法估算所有站点的可能最大降水(PMP)并分析其时空变化特征,以揭示气候变化对PMP产生的影响。结果表明:1963—1992年和1989—2018年流域内大多数站点的AMDP呈非显著变化趋势,用于估算这2个时期的PMP具有一定的合理性;2个时期的AMDP均值及其标准差均呈现西北低东南高的空间格局,且与1963—1992年相比,流域内1989—2018年大多数站点的AMDP均值及其标准差呈增加趋势;2个时期的PMP均呈东高西低的空间分布特征,且1989—2018年流域的PMP较1963—1992年平均增加约28.28%,其中79.79%站点的PMP呈增加趋势,增加趋势显著的站点主要分布在川西高原、南阳盆地和长江以南地区。Based on the observed daily precipitation during 1963—2018 at 188 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin,the Modified Mann-Kendall(MMK)method is used to analyze the trends of the temporal variations in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation(AMDP).Then Probable Maximum Precipitation(PMP)is estimated by the modified Hershfield statistical method and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of PMP are analyzed for all stations over the basin,as a result,to reveal the possible impact of climate change on PMP.The results show that AMDP shows nonsignificant increasing or decreasing trend at most stations of the basin during 1963—1992 and 1989—2018 period so that it is reasonable to use them for PMP estimation.The mean and standard deviation of AMDP shows a spatial pattern of higher values in southeast and lower values in northwest,and an increasing trend at most stations during 1989—2018 relative to 1963—1992.The PMP during two periods is characterized by the spatial distribution with higher values in east and lower values in west.Compared to 1963—1992,the average PMP over the basin increases by 28.28% during 1989—2018,and there are 79.79% stations,mostly located in the western Sichuan Plateau,Nanyang Basin and the south region over the Yangtze River Basin,showing that PMP increases significantly.

关 键 词：可能最大降水 改进的Hershfield方法 频率因子 长江流域 时空变化特征 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]