CMIP6 Projections of the“Warming–Wetting”Trend in Northwest China and Related Extreme Events Based on Observational Constraints  

作　　者：Qian WANG Panmao ZHAI 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2022年第2期239-250,共12页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507700)。

摘　　要：This study presents the improved future projections of the climate“warming-wetting”trend and climate extremes with different return periods in Northwest China at different global warming levels.The projections are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)simulations constrained by the high-resolution observation dataset using the equidistant cumulative distribution functions(EDCDF)method.The results indicate that the climate will experience continuous warming and wetting as reflected by average temperature and total precipitation over Northwest China,especially under the scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathway 5-representative concentration pathway 8.5(SSP5-8.5).Most parts of Northwest China will continue to warm in the future more than global average.Spatially,areas with prominent“warming-wetting”trends will be mainly distributed in western Northwest China.It is worth noting that extreme heat and precipitation events will also increase with the climate warming and wetting over Northwest China.Moreover,frequencies of rarer extreme events will increase more apparently than weaker extreme events and frequency increase of extreme heat events responds to global warming faster than that of extreme precipitation events.Limiting global warming within 2℃relative to 1850-1900 would slowdown the increase in extreme heat events and considerably suppress the increase in frequencies of extreme precipitation events,especially the rare(i.e.,50-yr)extreme events.

关 键 词：Northwest China PROJECTION PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE extreme events 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]