创新生态系统主体技术策略研究--基于领先企业与跟随企业的演化博弈与仿真  

Firms'technological strategies in an innovation ecosystem:A dynamic interaction between leading firms and following firms based on evolutionary game theory and multi-agent simulation

作　　者：谭劲松[1,2] 赵晓阳 TAN Justin;ZHAO Xiao-yan(Schulich School of Business,York University,Toronto M3J1P3,Canada;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]加拿大约克大学舒立克商学院,多伦多M3J1P3,加拿大 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [3]河海大学商学院,南京211100

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2022年第5期13-28,共16页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71732005,72072124,71672123);国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BGL040).

摘　　要：创新生态系统内主体基于知识的博弈不仅关乎个体的生存和发展,也影响创新生态系统的演进•文章从群体演化博弈视角,研究了差异性环境下创新生态系统主体创新保护策略及跟随策略选择问题.先后构建非对称演化博弈模型和多智能体仿真模型,分析了制度、生态、技术等因素对创新生态系统演化均衡稳定性及演化稳定策略的影响.研究发现:专利运营及维权成本、救济力度、政府补贴、技术替代与模仿相对难度是影响系统演化均衡的关键因素;基于上述因素形成的不同情境,系统涌现四种均衡状态:(专利,模仿)、(专利,替代)、(技术秘密,模仿)、主体策略规律性持续波动;仿真模型呈现随机波动,在趋势上符合演化稳定分析结果;合作网络密集度高、学习搜索范围广时,由于主体交互性增强,决策不确定性下降、有效性提高,各群体长期演化趋向于平均收益期望大的策略.信息模糊度高时,决策不确定性及系统波动幅度增加,群体间策略交互制约作用减弱,系统长期演化偏离演化稳定分析结果.The knowledge-based competition between agents in an innovation ecosystem not only impacts the survival and development of individuals but also affects the evolution of the innovation ecosystem.From the evolutionary game perspective,this paper explores agents1 choice of appropriability strategies and following strategies in an innovation ecosystem under different environments.An asymmetric evolutionary game model and a multi-agent simulation model are constructed successively to analyze the influence of institutional,ecological,and technological factors on the evolutionary equilibrium stability and evolutionary stable strategies of an innovation ecosystem.It is found that the key factors affecting the equilibrium of system evolution are costs of patent operation and protection,the degree of relief on patent disputes,government subsidies,and the relative technical difficulty between substitution and imitation.Based on different situations formed by the above factors,there are four evolutionary stable states:(patenting,imitation),(patenting,substitution),(secret,imitation),and continuous fluctuation of strategies.The outcomes of simulation models which show random fluctuations are consistent with the results of evolutionary stability analysis in the trend.When a cooperation network is dense or a search scope is wide,the long-term evolution of each group tends to be strategies with large average income expectation due to the increase of interaction,the decrease of decision uncertainty,and the improvement of decision effectiveness.Meanwhile,the uncertainty of decision-making increases,and the system fluctuates more violently when information fuzziness is high.Moreover,the strategic interaction between groups is weakened,and the long-term evolution of the system deviates from the results of evolutionary stability analysis when information fuzziness is high.

关 键 词：创新保护策略 跟随策略 演化博弈 多智能体仿真 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]