基于APSIM模型的内蒙古四大生态区不同降水年型下主要作物适应性评价  

Adaptability Evaluation of Staple Crops Under Different Precipitation Year Types in Four Ecological Regions of Inner Mongolia Based on APSIM

作　　者：刘霞霞 李扬[1] 王靖[1] 黄明霞[1] 白蕤 宋扬 胡琦[1] 张佳莹 陈仁伟 LIU XiaXia;LI Yang;WANG Jing;HUANG MingXia;BAI Rui;SONG Yang;HU Qi;ZHANG JiaYing;CHEN RenWei(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2022年第10期1917-1937,共21页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2019GG016);内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2020ZD0005)。

摘　　要：【目的】探究内蒙古四大生态区(黄土高原、阴山北麓、燕山丘陵和大兴安岭)不同降水年型下主要作物(玉米、马铃薯、莜麦、油菜、油葵和食葵)的适应性,为优化内蒙古主要作物布局提供重要科学参考。【方法】本研究选取4个生态区的典型站点,应用验证后的APSIM模型定量6种作物的潜在产量、雨养产量和产量差,以此计算不同降水年型下作物减产率,评估其适应性并基于作物水分生产函数解析作物对水分的敏感性。【结果】(1)6种作物营养生长期、生殖生长期和产量模拟值与实测值的RMSE分别为10.1 d、8.9 d和1322.4 kg·hm^(-2),NRMSE分别为14.6%、19.2%和22.6%,表明模型能够较好地模拟不同区域各作物的生长发育和产量形成。(2)玉米、马铃薯、莜麦、油菜、油葵与食葵的潜在干重产量分别为12024±4874、7315±806、6611±906、2424±326、2721±205、4905±428 kg·hm^(-2),莜麦与食葵的最大潜在产量在阴山北麓,其他4种作物的最大潜在产量在黄土高原。玉米、马铃薯、莜麦、油菜、油葵与食葵的雨养干重产量分别为3056±2902、3337±1608、2974±1677、912±511、869±618、1508±984 kg·hm^(-2),6种作物的雨养产量自西向东递增,在大兴安岭达到最大值。玉米、马铃薯、莜麦、油菜、油葵与食葵的产量差分别为8968±5844、3978±2358、3637±2122、1512±832、1852±749、3397±1328 kg·hm^(-2),除玉米与莜麦外的4种作物产量差自西向东递减,在大兴安岭达到最低值。(3)以雨养产量相对于潜在产量的减产率为干旱指标,并参考雨养产量的变异系数,则在雨养条件下,黄土高原区各作物均不适宜种植;阴山北麓区枯水年各作物均不适宜种植,平水年适宜种植马铃薯,丰水年则适宜种植马铃薯、莜麦;燕山丘陵区枯水年各作物均不适宜种植,平水年适宜种植马铃薯与莜麦,丰水年6种作物均适宜种植;大兴安岭区枯水年适宜种植马【Objective】In order to provide the important scientific reference for optimizing the layout of staple crops in Inner Mongolia,the adaptability of staple crops(maize,potato,oats,canola,oil and edible sunflower)was evaluated in four ecological regions of Inner Mongolia under different precipitation year types.【Method】Four typical sites in four ecological regions were selected.The validated APSIM model was used to quantify the potential yields,rainfed yields and yield gaps of six crops.Yield reduction rates of rainfed yields relative to potential yields under different precipitation year types were calculated to evaluate the adaptability of staple crops.Crop water production functions were conducted to analyze crop water sensitivity.【Result】RMSE between simulated and observed vegetative growth period,reproductive growth period,dry yield was 10.1 d,8.9 d,and1322.4 kg·hm^(-2),respectively.NRMSE between observed and simulated vegetative growth period,reproductive growth period,and dry yield was 14.6%,19.2%,and 22.6%,respectively.The validation results showed that APSIM could effectively simulate the growth,development,and yield of each crop in different regions.The potential dry yields of maize,potato,oats,canola,oil sunflower,and edible sunflower were 12024±4874,7315±806,6611±906,2424±326,2721±205,and 4905±428 kg·hm^(-2),respectively.The potential yields of oats and edible sunflower reached the maximum values in the north foot of Yinshan Mountains while potential yields of other four crops reached the maximum values in the Loess Plateau.The rainfed dry yields of maize,potato,oats,canola,oil sunflower,and edible sunflower were 3056±2902,3337±1608,2974±1677,912±511,869±618,and 1508±984 kg·hm^(-2),respectively.Average rainfed yields of the six crops increased from west to east and reached the maximum values in Da Hinggan Mountains.Yield gaps of maize,potato,oats,canola,oil sunflower,and edible sunflower were 8968±5844,3978±2358,3637±2122,1512±832,1852±749,and 3397±1328 kg·hm^(-2),respect

关 键 词：雨养农业 降水保证率 降水年型 减产率 适应性 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]