青藏高原不同积温条件下春小麦光温生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应  

Photo-Temperature Potential Yield of Spring Wheat at Different Accumulated Temperature Ranges and Its Response to Climate Change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：张泽民 吕昌河[1,2] ZHANG ZeMin;LÜ ChangHe(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Beijing 100101;University of the Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2022年第11期2135-2149,共15页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040301);国家自然科学基金(42101266);国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604701)。

摘　　要：【目的】准确评估青藏高原春小麦光温生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应,可以为合理开发地区农业资源和保障区域粮食安全提供参考。【方法】首先基于文献数据资料,在对WOFOST模型进行参数校验的基础上,利用青藏高原113个气象台站1958—2017年的逐日气候数据,逐年模拟了春小麦光温生产潜力并进行空间分析,然后利用Theil-Sen Median坡度、Pearson相关和逐步多元线性回归(SMLR)等方法,统计分析了不同积温条件下春小麦光温生产潜力变化对气候要素变化的响应。【结果】1958—2017年,青藏高原各个气象台站春小麦的多年平均光温生产潜力在3.20—8.68 t·hm^(-2)之间,其中5—9月多年平均活动积温在1600—3400℃·d区间的潜力相对较高,并且呈轻微上升态势,主要分布在西藏“一江两河”、青海“河湟谷地”、四川甘孜州北部等,而<1600℃·d和>3400℃·d区间的生产潜力相对较低,且分别呈显著上升和下降态势(P<0.01)。青藏高原作物生长季的日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.01),并且最低温度的上升速率高于平均温度和最高温度;温度日较差和太阳辐射则均呈下降趋势(P<0.01),下降速率分别为0.08℃·(10a)^(-1)和8.96 MJ·m^(-2)·(10a)^(-1)。不同积温区间,气候要素的变化趋势存在明显差异,随着积温的增加,日最高温度、最低温度和平均温度的上升速率均呈下降态势,日较差的下降速率也呈减小态势,而太阳辐射的下降速率则为增加态势。青藏高原及各个积温区间春小麦光温生产潜力变化与太阳辐射变化均呈显著的正相关关系(P<0.01),而对温度变化的响应存在差异,积温区间从<1600℃·d到>3400℃·d,生产潜力对平均温度和最高温度的响应程度逐渐下降,且对最低温度的响应由正向变为负向,与日较差和太阳辐射的正相关性程度也呈先升高后下降的态势。在<1600℃·d积温�【Objective】The aim of this study was to assess accurately the potential yield of spring wheat and its responses to climate change,which was of great significance to exploit the agricultural resources and to ensure the food security in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP).【Method】This paper firstly calibrated the WOFOST model based on published research data,and then simulated the photo-temperature potential yield(Yp)of spring wheat at 113 stations in the QTP based on the model and the daily meteorological data during 1958 to 2017.Further,the response of spring wheat potential yield to climate change in three classified accumulated temperature ranges was analyzed by using Theil-Sen Median slope(Sen’s slope),Pearson’s correlation and stepwise multiple linear regression(SMLR)methods.【Result】During 1958 to 2017,the annual average potential yield at stations throughout the QTP was between 3.20 and 8.68 t·hm^(-2).The potential yield was relatively high in regions with the accumulated temperature range of 1600-3400℃·d,including the Yijiang Lianghe Region,the Hehuang River Valley and the northern parts of Ganzi,showing a slightly increase trend.In the regions with accumulated temperature below 1600℃·d and above 3400℃·d,the potential yield was relatively low and showed a significantly increase and decrease trend,respectively(P<0.01).For the whole QTP,the daily average temperature(Tave),maximum temperature(Tmax)and minimum temperature(Tmin)in the growing season of spring wheat showed significantly increase trends(P<0.01),and the increase rate of Tmin was higher than that of Tave and Tmax,while temperature diurnal range(Td)and solar radiation(Ra)decreased at rates of 0.08℃and 8.96 MJ·m^(-2)per decade,respectively.The change trends of climatic factors differed obviously among the three accumulated temperature ranges:with increase of accumulated temperature,the increase rates of Tmax,Tmin and Tave and the decrease rate of Td were reduced,while the decrease rate of Ra was increased.There was a significan

关 键 词：春小麦 光温生产潜力 WOFOST模型 气候变暖 青藏高原 

分 类 号：S512.12[农业科学—作物学] S161.2