“双赤字”还是“双分离”?--财政政策与经常项目失衡的关系研究  

"Twin Deficits"or"Twin Divergence"?--Research on the relationship between fiscal policy and current account imbalance

作　　者：吴晓芳[1,2] 樊学瑞 WU Xiao-fang;FAN Xue-rui(School of International Trade and Economics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030;Business School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;School of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730099,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093 [3]兰州大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730099

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2022年第2期1-13,共13页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“长三角世界级先进制造业集群的培育机制与路径研究”(21BJY150)。

摘　　要：基于新开放宏观经济学框架构建包含财政盈余的经常项目跨期理论模型,并采用1991—2017年65个国家(或地区)的数据检验了政策赤字对经常项目失衡的作用究竟是“双赤字”效应还是“双分离”效应。研究得出:财政赤字是经常项目失衡的重要原因,且两者存在显著的“双赤字”效应,也就是财政赤字增加会导致一国经常项目赤字愈发严重,反则反之。从而财政政策能够治理一国经常项目失衡问题,但各国经济特性不同,导致治理效率存在显著差异,具体表现为浮动汇率制下的高贸易开放度、低政府债务国家的治理效率更高;固定汇率制下的低贸易开放度、高政府债务国家的治理效率更低。治理经常项目失衡,财政政策需要考虑生产率增长率的国家特质因子,如果特质因子较高,也就是一国生产率增长速度较快,容易加剧该国经常项目赤字,此时不适合再采用扩张财政政策,相反,不适合采用紧缩财政政策,也就是治理外部经济失衡,财政政策的实施应该是逆经济周期的。Based on the framework of new open macroeconomics,this paper constructs an intertemporal theoretical model of current accounts including fiscal balance(or fiscal surplus),and uses the data of 65 countries(or regions)from 1991 to 2017 to test the effect of policy deficits on the current account im⁃balance is“twin deficits”or“twin divergence”.The study shows that the fiscal deficit is a significant cause of current account imbalance.There is a significant"twin deficits"effect between the two.The in⁃crease in the fiscal deficit will lead to a more serious current account deficit for a country.In the opposite case,the opposite is true.Fiscal policy can thus address a country's current account imbalances,but the economic characteristics of different countries lead to significant differences in governance effi⁃ciency.Specifically,countries with high trade openness and low government debt have high governance efficiency under a floating exchange rate system.Countries with low trade openness and high government debt have low governance efficiency under a fixed exchange rate system.To manage the current account imbalances,fiscal policy needs to consider the national idiosyncratic factor of productivity growth rate.If the characteristic factor is higher,that is,when a country's productivity growth rate is faster,it tends to exacerbate the country's current account deficit,and it is not suitable to use expansionary fiscal policy then.In the opposite case,it is not appropriate to adopt an austerity fiscal policy.That is,to control the imbalance of the external economy,the implementation of fiscal policy should be counter-cyclical.

关 键 词：财政盈余 经常项目失衡 生产率 双赤字 双分离 过剩储蓄 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]