基于VAR模型的城市居民用水需求同水价和收入的动态关系研究  

Research on VAR Model and Dynamic Relationship between Urban Residents’Water Demand and Water Price

作　　者：许萍[1,2] 宋宜林 陈梓豪 XU Ping;SONG Yi-lin;CHEN Zi-hao(Key Laboratory of Urban Stormwater System and Water Environment,Ministry of Education,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;National Experimental Teaching and Demonstration Center for Water Environment,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学城市雨水系统与水环境教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京建筑大学水环境国家级实验教学示范中心,北京100044

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第6期95-103,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“城市水资源承载控制指标与综合节水方案研究”(2018ZX07110-008-006)。

摘　　要：水价是用水需求管理的重要工具,现阶段我国居民用水量存在巨大节水潜力,而居民收入对用水需求同样存在一定影响,因此在不同城市条件下,如何有效利用水价引导居民合理用水是节水工作亟需解决的难题之一。通过构建VAR模型运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解,在全国范围内选取8座典型城市,根据水资源丰富度、人均可支配收入以及现阶段水价水平,两两分组进行水价、收入对居民用水需求的影响及其动态关系的实证分析与探讨。结果表明,高水价能够对用水需求形成有效抑制,但抑制效应将随时间推移而降低,而长期较低的水价不能有效反映水资源紧缺情况,难以使居民准确了解水资源紧缺程度,进而无法对居民用水需求产生有效的抑制作用;缺水城市水价对居民用水需求影响平均贡献度集中于12.14%~26.41%,普遍高于水资源量较为充沛城市的2.72%~10.10%;各典型城市水价对居民用水需求的影响普遍高于收入,而收入的增长对用水需求的拉动效应并不明显,相反,较高收入能够对用水需求产生一定的抑制作用。针对不同城市应因地制宜地进行水价调整,充分发挥水价对水资源稀缺程度的反馈作用,明确水价调整周期或制定水价调整启动条件,向居民及时有效的传递节水信号,进而对居民用水量进行合理调控,严格控制城市居民用水总量的不合理增长。Water price is an important tool for water demand management.At this stage,there is a huge potential for water conservation in China’s residential water consumption,while urban residents’income also has an impact on water consumption.Therefore,under different urban conditions,how to effective use water price to guide residents to use water wisely is one of the most pressing challenges in water conservation.Using the VAR model with impulse response functions and variance decomposition,the study analyzed the impact of water price and income on residents’water demand and their dynamics in eight typical cities across China,grouped in pairs according to water abundance,per capita disposable income and current water price levels.The results show that higher water prices can effectively suppress water demand,but the suppression effect decreases over time,while long-term lower water prices cannot effectively reflect water scarcity,making it difficult for residents to accurately understand the extent of water scarcity,and thus cannot effectively suppress water demand.The average contribution of water price to residential water demand in water-deficient cities is concentrated between 12.14%and 26.41%,generally higher than the 2.72%to 10.10%in water-rich cities;In the selected cities,the impact of water price on residential water demand is generally higher than that of income,while the pulling effect of income growth on water demand is relatively insignificant.On the contrary,higher-income can have a certain inhibitory effect on water demand.The water price should be adjusted according to local conditions in different cities,giving full play to the feedback effect of water price on the scarcity of water resources,specifying the periodicity of water price adjustment or setting the conditions for starting water price adjustment,timely and effectively transmit water conservation signals to residents,to reasonably control the water consumption of residents,and strictly control the unreasonable increase in the total amount

关 键 词：水价 收入 居民用水需求 VAR模型 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F726[经济管理—产业经济]