经费规模与科研产出——基于NSFC资助政策“净效应”的分析  

Funding scale and scientific research output——An analysis based on the"net effect"of NSFC funding policy

作　　者：段培新 王凯凯 孟溦[3,4] 郑毅 Duan Peixin;Wang Kaikai;Meng Wei;Zheng Yi(School of Public Administration and Policy,Shandong University ofFinance and Economics,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics,Shandong University ofFinance and Economics,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;School of Public Administration,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学公共管理学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东财经大学数学与数量经济学院,山东济南250014 [3]华东师范大学公共管理学院,上海200062 [4]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062 [5]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《科研管理》2022年第5期94-103,共10页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:“科学基金项目规模收益及最优规模项目特征研究”(71904105,2020-2022);国家自然科学基金项目:“基于工作行为数据的试验发展人员‘人-岗’能力匹配方法研究”(72004217,2021-2023);山东省重点研发计划(软科学)项目:“改革开放以来山东省科技创新政策的演进路径与系统剖析”(2020RKB01369,2020-2021)。

摘　　要：科学研究离不开稳定持续的经费投入,经费资助政策决定着科研投入资源的分配,进而影响资助成效,因此经费资助政策对于科研投入作用的发挥至关重要。以NSFC面上项目资助政策变化为例,采用双重差分方法考察了经费增加对科研产出的影响,并进一步剔除项目不相关产出验证经费变化的政策“净效应”。研究发现:科学基金经费增加显著提升了科研产出数量和质量;而剔除不相关产出考虑政策“净效应”后,经费增加对项目产出质量提升更显著;通过异质性分析发现经费增加的政策“净效应”中存在着“强者恒强”的作用,且中等规模团队受经费增加政策“净效应”明显。为提高科研经费资助成效,在适当增加经费规模基础上,应针对不同人群实行差异化资助,提高资助政策精准化程度,同时完善科学基金成果管理,更加关注项目的实际产出。Scientific research needs stable and sustainable funding.The funding policy determines the allocation of scientific research investment resources,and then affects the efficiency of funding.Therefore,the funding policy plays an important role in scientific research investment.Based on a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-difference method,the thesis explores the impact of NSFC′s policy of increasing funding on scientific research output.We take general project of NSFC as an example in 2011,and make an empirical analysis on physics.We also use"number"and"number+member+keyword"two different retrieval methods to screen the project output data to test the"net effect"of the change of funding policy after excluding the irrelevant output.It is found that the increase of NSFC funds has a significant policy effect on the impact of the research output,and notability improves the quantity and quality of output.After excluding irrelevant output and considering the"net effect"of the policy,the increase of funds has a more significant impact on the quality of project output.We make the heterogeneity analysis on the experience of principal investigator.With"number"retrieval method,the increase of funds can significantly improve the scientific research output(quantity and quality),but it has a stronger impact on the"young"researchers who have won only one project.Excluding irrelevant output with"number+member+keyword"retrieval method,the increase of funds will increase the number of directly related output for the"young"researchers who have won only one project.On the contrary,the increase of funds improves the quality of output for the"senior"researchers who have won projects for many times.We make the heterogeneity analysis on the institutional type.We find the increase of funds improves the outputs for the top institutions(985 universities and Chinese Academy of Sciences)and for these two types of institutions,the"net effect"of research quality is more significant than quantity after excluding irrelevant output wit

关 键 词：科学基金 经费规模 科研产出 双重差分 政策“净效应” 

分 类 号：G322.0[文化科学]