全球价值链下的区域贸易协定:效应模拟与机制分析  

Regional Trade Agreements within Global Value Chains:Analyses on Effects and Mechanisms

作　　者：杨曦[1] 杨宇舟 Yang Xi;Yang Yuzhou

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系 [2]厦门大学经济学院经济学系,福建省厦门市361005

出　　处：《世界经济》2022年第5期29-56,共28页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873113);国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AJY003)的资助。

摘　　要：本文在全球价值链框架下评估了区域贸易协定的贸易和福利效应。回归结果表明,签订区域贸易协定对中间生产贸易和最终消费贸易、总值贸易和增加值贸易的影响均存在显著差异。基于这一结果,本文以区域全面经济伙伴关系协定为例的分析表明:全球价值链主要通过中间生产贸易作用于区域贸易协定的经济效应,中间生产贸易自由化对中国实际工资提升的贡献比例约为75%;全球价值链有助于弱化区域贸易协定的贸易创造和转移效应,表现为协定内与协定外经济体间总值与增加值贸易额变动的显著差异;随着全球价值链参与程度上升,区域贸易协定对一国福利变动的影响变大,而增加值出口占比的调整也会显著改变区域贸易协定的福利效应。This paper assesses the trade and welfare effects of regional trade agreements(RTAs) in the context of global value chains(GVCs). The regression analysis confirms that there are significant differences in the impacts of the signing of RTAs on intermediate-use and final-consumption trade, and similarly in gross and value-added terms. Based on this result, analyses of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) reveal that GVCs primarily affect the economic impact of RTAs through their effects on intermediate-use trade, and liberalisation of intermediate-use trade accounts for 75% of the increase in real wages in China. GVCs also help to weaken the trade creation and diversion effects of RTAs, represented by significantly differential changes in trade in gross and value-added terms. Finally, the impact of RTAs on a country’s welfare increases with its degree of participation in GVCs, and changes in the value-added ratio of exports also significantly affect the impact of RTAs on welfare.

关 键 词：全球价值链 贸易协定 RCEP 量化贸易模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F742[经济管理—产业经济]