金融驱动与可再生能源发展——基于跨国数据的动态演化分析  

Financial Drivers and Renewable Energy Development——A Dynamic Evolution Analysis Based on Multinational Data

作　　者：马丽梅 黄崇乐 MA Li-mei;HUANG Chong-le(China Center for Special Economic Zone Research,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第4期118-136,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进新型工业化与经济体系优化升级研究”(批准号21ZDA021);国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(批准号72140001);广东省教育厅重点平台及科研项目“碳中和目标下的碳排时空路径演变与协同优化:基于文本挖掘视角”(批准号2021WTSCX076)。

摘　　要：发展可再生能源是实现碳达峰与碳中和目标的关键路径与必然选择。从全球趋势看,金融正越来越深刻地影响能源转型的轨迹,驱动可再生能源进入跨越式发展阶段。区别于已有研究,本文着重探讨不同发展阶段下金融驱动可再生能源发展的动态演化特征,运用1991-2019年162个国家和地区的跨国面板数据,系统考察金融发展对可再生能源的影响。研究表明:金融发展对可再生能源产生显著的正向影响。区分可再生能源发展阶段的回归结果显示,可再生能源的驱动因素是多维且动态变化的,在初期阶段主要由政府政策驱动,而在成长阶段和成熟阶段金融发展的作用逐渐凸显;进一步运用面板分位数回归发现,金融发展的边际效应呈现先增大后减小的趋势,在可再生能源的成长阶段其作用更为明显。异质性分析发现,银行主导型的金融结构更有利于可再生能源发展。机制检验发现,金融发展主要通过提高可再生能源技术创新水平、缓解间接融资约束影响可再生能源。本文的研究为推动可再生能源行业的可持续发展提供理论依据,同时也为中国完善绿色金融体系提供了丰富的政策启示。The development of renewable energy is a key path and inevitable choice to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Finance is increasingly affecting the trajectory of energy transition, driving renewable energy into a stage of leapfrog development.Different from existing research, this article focuses on the evolutionary characteristics of the marginal effect of financial development under different development stages of renewable energy.It uses cross-country panel data from 162 countries and regions from 1991 to 2019 to investigate the impact of financial development on renewable energy.The benchmark regression results based on the full sample show that financial development has a significant positive impact on renewable energy.The regression results distinguishing the stages of renewable energy development show that the driving factors of renewable energy are multi-dimensional and dynamic in the initial stage, it was mainly driven by government policies, while the role of financial development in the growth and mature stages gradually became prominent.Further using panel quantile regression, this paper finds that the marginal effect of financial development shows a trend of first growth and then decline, and its role is most obvious in the growth stage of renewable energy.The heterogeneity analysis shows that under the bank-led financial structure, financial development is more conducive to the development of renewable energy.Mechanism testing shows that financial development affects renewable energy mainly by improving the level of renewable energy technology innovation and alleviating indirect financing constraints.The research provides a theoretical basis for how to promot the sustainable development of renewable energy industry, and also provides rich policy implications for China to improve the green financial system.

关 键 词：金融发展 可再生能源 碳中和 面板分位数模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]