外资绿地投资对我国银行体系稳定性的影响——基于主成分分析和VEC模型的实证测度  

The Impact of Foreign Greenfield Investment on the Stability of China's Banking System:An Empirical Measurement Based on Principal Component Analysis and VEC Model

作　　者：王蕙 张武强 汪雷[3] WANG Hui;ZHANG Wu-qiang;WANG Lei(Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei Anhui 230036,China;Hefei Central Sub-Branch of the People's Bank of China,Hefei Anhui 230091,China;Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233041,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230036 [2]中国人民银行合肥中心支行,安徽合肥230091 [3]安徽财经大学三农问题研究所,安徽蚌埠233041

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2022年第2期33-37,共5页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社科研究重点项目“低碳经济视角下促进安徽FDI绿色创新长效机制研究”(SK2017A0143);繁荣基金重点项目“外资银行绿地投资对中国银行体系稳定性的测度分析”(2016zs01zd)。

摘　　要：文章以2003-2020年为样本期,通过主成分分析法对银行体系稳定性进行测度,并构建协整和向量误差修正模型,就外资绿地投资对我国银行体系稳定性的长期和短期影响进行实证研究。结论表明:外资绿地投资对银行体系稳定性的长、短期影响均利大于弊,总影响为正面效应,即外资绿地投资总体提升了中国银行体系稳定性,且具有累积效应;两者存在相互作用的长期均衡关系,短期波动偏离长期均衡时将以调整系数的速度修正;宏观经济增长对银行体系稳定性和外资绿地投资的影响均为正向,银行业集中度对二者的影响相反,均为负向,宏观经济增长率的影响程度更强。Taking 2003-2020 as the sample period,this paper measures the stability of banking system through principal component analysis,constructs cointegration and vector error correction models,and makes an empirical study on the long-term and short-term impact of foreign greenfield investment on the stability of China's banking system.The conclusions show that:The long-term and short-term effects of foreign greenfield investment on the stability of banking system outweigh the disadvantages,and the total impact is a positive effect,that is,foreign greenfield investment generally improves the stability of China's banking system and has a cumulative effect;There is an interactive long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.When the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,it will be corrected at the speed of adjustment coefficient;The impact of macroeconomic growth on the stability of banking system and foreign greenfield investment is positive,while the impact of banking concentration on both is negative,and the impact of macroeconomic growth rate is stronger.

关 键 词：外资银行 绿地投资 银行体系 稳定性 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]