俄乌冲突对中美关系的影响论析  

An Analysis of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on China-US Relations

作　　者：赵明昊 Zhao Minghao(the Center for American Studies,Fudan University;the Institute of International and Strategic Studies,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学美国研究中心 [2]北京大学战略研究院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2022年第3期1-22,135,140,141,142,共26页Peace and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大类项目(21VMG002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突是冷战后欧亚大陆地缘政治矛盾的剧烈爆发,对国际秩序构成重大冲击。这场冲突体现了美俄战略博弈的新态势,也将对中美关系带来深刻、复杂的影响。美国借助俄乌冲突,以“捆绑中俄”策略推升所谓“中国威胁”,操弄全球经济的价值观壁垒,打造以制裁为核心的经济战体系,美国在全球治理领域的对华施压也将趋于强化。俄乌冲突不会改变美国推行“印太战略”的决心,美国将利用这一冲突加快构建盟伴体系,尤其是增强日本、澳大利亚等国在军事上的进攻性能力。在俄乌冲突的背景下,美国进一步增强与台湾当局的军事、经贸、科技等联系,力图通过美日同盟、四边机制、美欧联动等为台湾地区构筑“国际屏障”,其在对台政策上的所谓“战略清晰”动向更趋显著。The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a violent outbreak of geopolitical contradictions on the Eurasian continent in the wake of the Cold War,constituting a major impact on the international order.The conflict reflects the new trend of strategic game between the US and Russia,which will also have a profound and complex impact on China-US relations.With the help of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the US has elevated the so-called"China threat"with the strategy of"binding China and Russia",manipulated the value barrier of the global economy,and created an economic war system with sanctions as the core.The US will also tend to intensify its pressure on China in the field of global governance.The Russia-Ukraine conflict will not change the determination of the US to pursue its Indo-Pacific strategy.The US will use the conflict to speed up the building of alliance and partner systems,especially enhance the military offensive capabilities of Japan,Australia and other countries.Against the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine conflict,the US has further strengthened its military,economic,trade,scientific and technological ties with the Taiwan authorities,and tried to build an"international barrier"for Taiwan through the US-Japan alliance,the QUAD mechanism,and the US-EU joint action,thus making the trend of"strategic clarity"in its Taiwan policy become more obvious.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 中美关系 “印太战略” 台湾问题 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]