服务贸易人民币结算和人民币汇率的协整关系研究--基于非参数Granger检验和ECM模型  

Research on the Co-integration Relationship between RMB Settlement in Service Trade and RMB Exchange Rate:Based on Nonparametric Granger Tests and ECM Model

作　　者：杨碧琴 YANG Bi-qin(School of Business,Minnan Normal University,Zhangzhou Fujian 363000,China)

机构地区：[1]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第6期76-81,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社科基金西部项目(19XJL001,19XJL008)。

摘　　要：文章采用非线性格兰杰因果关系检验、多元协整方程和多元误差修正滞后分布模型,实证研究中国服务贸易人民币结算和人民币汇率的协整关系,研究发现:中国服务贸易企业采用人民币结算最主要的经济动机是规避汇率风险,跨境贸易人民币结算是中国服务贸易企业规避汇率风险的一个有效机制,并通过贸易效应为外汇市场提供资金池;中国服务贸易人民币结算额和人民币汇率存在长期协整关系,长期内人民币对美元汇率贬值将带动中国服务贸易人民币结算额增加;短期内中国服务贸易人民币结算额和人民币汇率之间实现动态调整,为长期均衡状态提供修正机制。人民币汇率短期保持相对稳定,中长期保持适度贬值,有助于中国服务贸易人民币结算发展。Using nonlinear Granger causality test,multivariate cointegration equation and multivariate error correction lag distribution model,empirical research on the cointegration relationship between China's service trade RMB settlement and RMB exchange rate,the study found:China's service trade companies use RMB for settlement the most important economic motive is to avoid exchange rate risk.Cross-border trade RMB settlement is an effective mechanism for China's service traders to avoid exchange rate risk,and provides a pool of funds for the foreign exchange market through trade effects;China's service trade RMB settlement amount and RMB the exchange rate has a long-term co-integration relationship.In the long term,the depreciation of the RMB against the U.S.dollar will drive the increase in the RMB settlement of China's service trade;In the short term,China's service trade RMB settlement and the RMB exchange rate will achieve dynamic adjustments to provide a long-term equilibrium.Correction mechanism.The RMB exchange rate remains relatively stable in the short-term and moderately depreciated in the medium-to-long term,which will help the development of my country's service trade RMB settlement.

关 键 词：服务贸易 跨境人民币结算 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]