贸易开放对中国农业面源污染成本的影响——基于动态面板系统GMM模型的实证研究  

The Impact of Trade Opening-Up on the Cost of Non-point Source Pollution in China's Agriculture-Empirical Analysis Based on the GMM Model of Dynamic Panel System

作　　者：卢辞[1] 何维维 LU Ci;HE Weiwei(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学安徽经济社会发展研究院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期11-23,共13页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：安徽高校人文社科研究重大项目“淮河生态经济带生态系统耦合适应性研究”(SK2019ZD41);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“我国农业贸易的环境效应研究”(ACYC2018150)。

摘　　要：文章通过分析全国31省份化肥、农药、农膜和温室气体的农业面源污染成本,探究农业面源污染成本的时空差异。应用动态面板系统GMM模型分区域考察农业贸易对面源污染的影响。结果显示:(1)中国农业面源污染总成本在2008—2019年间呈倒U形变化,其中化肥是影响成本变化的最主要因素。污染成本较高的地区为华北平原地区、长江中下游地区及珠江流域地区,而西部地区的污染成本较低。(2)农业贸易与农业面源污染成本总体上显著负相关,具有显著的污染治理效应。(3)东部地区的进口贸易与农业面源污染成本系数为正,而中西部地区为负,两区域出口贸易均能改善环境,但东部地区出口的改进效应要远优于中西部地区。鉴于此,应坚持对外开放,保持合理贸易结构,科学利用技术效应和结构效应改善环境,加大政府环保投入。With the continuous improvement of China's opening-up level,the problem of agricultural trade and non-point source pollution has attracted more and more attention from the academic circles.Based on the macro data of 2008-2019,the time and space differences of the pollution cost of agricultural surface sources in 31 provinces were calculated by formula method and PEA tool method.And then,the dynamic panel system GMM estimates that the subregion investigates the relationship between pollution costs and foreign trade in the eastern and central and western regions.The results showed that:(1)The total cost of pollution from agricultural sources in China showed an inverted U-shaped change between 2008 and 2019,of which fertilizer was the most important factor affecting cost change.The areas with higher pollution costs are the North China plain,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Pearl River basin,while the western regions have lower pollution costs.(2)Agricultural trade is significantly negatively related to the cost of pollution from agricultural sources,and agricultural trade has significant pollution control effects.(3)The cost coefficient of import trade and agricultural surface pollution in the eastern region is positive and negative in the central and western regions,while the export trade of both regions can improve the environment,but the improvement effect of exports in the eastern region is much better than that in the central and western regions.In view of this,we should adhere to opening up to the outside world,maintain a reasonable trade structure,scientifically use technological and structural effects to improve the environment,increase government investment in environmental protection.

关 键 词：贸易开放 农业面源污染 PEA工具法 系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]