供给冲击下的财政货币政策:调控目标选择与政策搭配  

Fiscal and Monetary Policy under the Aggregate Supply Shock:The Choice of Policy Targets and Modes of Coordination

作　　者：李艳鹤 郭长林[2] Li Yanhe;Guo Changlin

机构地区：[1]上海商学院财务金融学院,上海200235 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200235

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2022年第2期5-17,共13页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：上海市社会科学规划课题“治理现代化视角下预算绩效管理对政府部门行为的研究”(2017EJB005);国家自然科学基金面上项目“多级政府框架下的财政政策短期波动与经济结构效应研究:基于理论模型与经验研究相结合的分析方法”(71873083)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,如何更为有效地发挥财政货币政策的积极作用,以保持宏观经济在合理区间健康平稳运行已成为当前十分重要的政策论题。本文基于居民消费的视角,通过将生产性财政政策、价格型与数量型货币政策同时引入动态随机一般均衡模型之中,从调控目标选择和政策搭配两个维度对这一问题进行系统的理论分析与实证检验。研究表明:(1)在总供给冲击下,以产出为调控目标的财政货币政策能够达到稳增长、鼓励居民消费的目标。通货膨胀不宜作为主要的宏观调控目标。不同政策搭配模式对居民消费的影响呈现出各项政策工具相互叠加的效果。(2)财政货币政策不仅会直接影响总需求,而且对总供给也具有显著影响。流动性在不同部门之间配置状况的变动成为货币政策影响宏观经济的重要渠道。(3)基于我国1998年第1季度至2020年第4季度的宏观季度数据,运用贝叶斯方法对模型参数进行估计结果显示,以产出为调控目标的后顾型财政政策和数量型货币政策、以通货膨胀为调控目标的后顾型利率政策的搭配模式能够更好地拟合了样本期内的数据特征,本文所采用的将货币引入生产函数的建模策略能够显著增强模型拟合数据的能力。In the context of the supply-side structural reform,it has become a very important topic that how to play the active role of fiscal and monetary policies more effectively to maintain the macroeconomy within a reasonable range at present.Based on the perspective of household consumption,this paper systematically studies this issue from two dimensions of target selection and policy coordination by introducing productive fiscal policy,price-type and quantitative-type monetary policy into an otherwise canonical DSGE model.The paper shows that:(1)Under the aggregate supply shock,the fiscal and monetary policy targeting at output can achieve the goal of stabilizing growth and encouraging household consumption.Inflation should not be taken as the main target of macro regulation.The impact of different policy collocation models on private consumption presents the effect of the super-position of various policy tools;(2)Fiscal and monetary policy not only affects aggregate demand directly,but also has a significant impact on aggregate supply.Changes in the allocation of liquidity among different sectors have become an important channel for monetary policy to affect the macro economy;(3)Based on Chinese macro quarterly data from 1998Q1 to 2020Q4,the Bayesian method was used to estimate the model parameters.The combination of the backward-looking interest rate policy of the regulation target can fit the data characteristics better in the sample period.The modeling strategy of introducing money into the production function can significantly enhance the ability of the model to fit the data.

关 键 词：总供给冲击 财政货币政策 流动性的部门间配置 居民消费 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]