不同碳达峰值对中美农产品贸易的影响研究  

Research on the Impacts of Different Carbon peaks on Sino-US Agricultural Trade

作　　者：高茜[1] 王思文 GAO Qian;WANG Siwen(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,合肥230601

出　　处：《安徽理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期17-24,共8页Journal of Anhui University of Science and Technology:Social Science

摘　　要：气候变化是人类面临的全球性问题,中国提出的碳达峰、碳中和目标将会对对外贸易有所影响。研究首先采用气候保护支出模型预测出中国碳峰值,得出两种参数取值情景下预测值分别为117.498亿吨和127.802亿吨;其次,根据贸易引力模型,利用2004—2020年数据来探究不同碳达峰值对中美两国之间农产品进出口贸易的影响,结果发现,碳排放量与中国对美国的农产品出口额正相关,10.3亿吨的碳达峰差值带来16.4%的出口额差值;最后,基于实证结论,针对双碳目标下中美农产品贸易的可持续发展提出政策建议。Climate change is a global problem facing mankind.China's carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets will have an impact on foreign trade.Firstly,the climate protection expenditure model is used to predict China's carbon peak,and the predicted values under the two parameter scenarios are 11.749.8 billion tons and 12.7802 billion tons respectively;Secondly,according to the trade gravity model,this paper uses the data from 2004 to 2020 to explore the impact of different carbon peaks on the import and export trade of agricultural products between China and the United States.The results show that carbon emissions are positively correlated with China′s agricultural exports to the United States,and the difference of 1.03 billion tons of carbon peaks brings 16.4%of the difference of exports;Finally,based on the empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the sustainable development of China US agricultural trade under the dual carbon goal.

关 键 词：碳达峰值 中美农产品贸易 贸易引力模型 政策建议 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.7