互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能影响研究——基于长江经济带的全面FGLS和门限模型估计  

Study on the influence of Internet popularization and mechanization level on pig production capacity:Comprehensive FGLS and threshold model estimation based on the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：员跃鑫 何蒲明[1] 曾智 裴潇[1] Yuan Yuexin;He Puming;Zeng Zhi;Pei Xiao(Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Yangtze University,Jingzhou,434023,China;School of Economics&Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北荆州434023 [2]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京市100083

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2022年第7期131-137,共7页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA020);湖北省教育厅重大基金项目(20ZD039)。

摘　　要：互联网普及和机械化水平对生猪养殖业转型发展具有重要作用。基于长江经济带各省(市、区)相关面板数据,通过构建全面FGLS估计检验互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的影响效果,发现两者对生猪产能均有显著促进作用。同时根据边际报酬递减规律,互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进效果可能是非线性的,受到一定发展水平的影响。因此引入不同发展水平门限变量,构建门限模型,检验两者对生猪产能的非线性促进作用。结果表明:互联网普及、机械化水平都受到不同发展水平的门限变量影响。当发展水平低于0.0168时,互联网普及对生猪产能的影响系数是0.0533335,在5%的水平上显著。当发展水平高于0.0168,互联网普及对生猪产能的影响系数降低到0.0186172,且失去显著性。当发展水平低于0.0172时,机械化水平对生猪产能的影响系数是0.21845,在1%的水平上显著,当发展水平高于0.0172时,机械化水平对生猪产能的影响系数降低到0.1491163,在5%的水平上显著。因此,互联网普及、机械化水平对长江经济带各省(市、区)的生猪产能具有非线性促进作用,互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进作用受到不同发展水平的门槛效应调节,只有在最适宜的发展水平下,互联网普及、机械化水平对生猪产能的促进效果才能最大化。从而提出推进电商主体与养殖实体的深度融合发展,打造线上交易平台;提高机械化创新能力,打造“三位一体”的机械化人才队伍、提高生猪养殖业信息技术、机械装备的使用效率等建议。The popularization of the Internet and the level of mechanization play important roles in the transformation and development of the pig breeding industry.Based on the relevant panel data of provinces(cities and districts)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,a comprehensive FGLS estimation was constructed to test the impact of Internet popularization and mechanization level on pig productivity,and it was found that both of them significantly promoted pig productivity.At the same time,according to the law of diminishing marginal returns,the promotion effect of Internet popularization and mechanization on pig production capacity may be nonlinear and affected by a certain level of development.Therefore,threshold variables of different development levels were introduced to build a threshold model to test the nonlinear promotion effect of the two on pig productivity.The results showed that the popularity and mechanization of the Internet were affected by the threshold variables of different development levels.When the development level was lower than 0.0168,the impact coefficient of Internet popularization on pig production capacity was 0.0533335,which was significant at the level of 5%.When the development level was higher than 0.0168,the impact coefficient of Internet popularization on pig production capacity decreased to 0.0186172 and lost significance.When the development level was lower than 0.0172,the influence coefficient of mechanization level on pig production capacity was 0.21845,which was significant at the level of 1%.When the development level was higher than 0.0172,the influence coefficient of mechanization level on pig production capacity was reduced to 0.1491163,which was significant at the level of 5%.The above research results showed that the popularity of the Internet and the level of mechanization have a nonlinear promoting effect on the pig production capacity of provinces(cities and districts)in the Yangtze River economic belt.The promoting effect of the popularity of the Internet and the level of m

关 键 词：互联网普及 机械化水平 长江经济带 全面FGLS估计 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]