基于动态模糊集的多阶段数据驱动鲁棒机组组合模型  

Multi-stage Data-driven Robust Unit Commitment Based on Dynamic Ambiguity Set

作　　者：张亚超 朱蜀 谢仕炜 ZHANG Yachao;ZHU Shu;XIE Shiwei(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian Province,China;Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410004,Hunan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福建省福州市350108 [2]国网湖南省电力有限公司调度控制中心,湖南省长沙市410004

出　　处：《电网技术》2022年第6期2190-2198,共9页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61903088)。

摘　　要：针对大规模风电并网引起的不确定性,提出一种多阶段数据驱动鲁棒机组组合模型。采用狄利克雷方法获取风电出力预测误差累计分布函数的非参数置信带,并引入保守度及相关性控制参数来构造高维不确定量的动态模糊集。在此基础上,结合电力系统调度过程的序贯决策特点,将实时调度的单一时段均视为一个调度阶段,建立基于上述动态模糊集的多阶段鲁棒机组组合模型。针对其多层嵌套结构,提出一种线性仿射规则,并采用鲁棒对等变换将其转化为混合整数线性规划问题求解。以不同规模电力系统算例进行仿真计算,与传统两阶段鲁棒机组组合模型的决策进行对比,并考虑电力网络和机组运行参数、保守度以及相关性控制参数的影响,验证了所提模型的有效性。Aiming at the uncertainty caused by large-scale wind power integration,a multi-stage data-driven robust unit commitment model is proposed.The non-parametric confidence band of cumulative distribution function for the wind power forecast error is obtained with the Dirichlet method,and the conservative degree and the correlation control parameters are introduced to construct the dynamic ambiguity set of the high-dimensional uncertainty.On this basis,combined with the sequential decision-making characteristics of the power system scheduling process,the single period during the real-time dispatch is regarded as a scheduling stage and a multi-stage robust unit commitment model based on the above dynamic ambiguity set is established.According to the multi-layer nested structure of this model,a linear affine rule is developed,and then the model is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming problem to be solved by adopting the robust counterpart.The simulation is implemented on the power systems with different scales.The decision-making by the traditional two-stage robust unit commitment model is taken for comparison.Moreover,the effects of the operation parameters of the power grid and generation units,the control parameters of conservative degree and the correlation are considered to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：多阶段鲁棒机组组合 数据驱动 动态模糊集 鲁棒对等 序贯决策 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]