高人力资本是否会降低人口出生率——基于地级以上城市宏观数据和CGSS微观数据的实证研究  

Will High Human Capital Lower Population Birth Rates——An Empirical Study Based on the Macro Data of Prefecture-Level and above Cities and the CGSS Micro Data

作　　者：钟晓龙 王自锋[2] ZHONG Xiao-long;WANG Zi-feng(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系,天津300071

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2022年第3期28-42,共15页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(18AZD001)。

摘　　要：利用收入法对我国2000—2017年间283个地级以上城市的人力资本进行了估算,之后对人力资本与人口出生率的关系进行了实证分析,结果发现,人力资本对人口出生率的作用为非线性,人力资本总体上会降低人口出生率,当人口出生率增加时负面作用减弱,当人口出生率降低时负面作用增强。利用2012年、2013年、2015年和2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据进一步研究发现,人力资本提高会通过降低生育意愿、延缓生育进度降低人口出生率。This paper firstly used the income approach to estimate the human capital of 283 cities at prefecture-level and above in China from 2000 to 2017,and then made an empirical analysis on the relationship between human capital and birth rate.Empirical analysis showed that,there was a non-linear relationship between human capital and birth rate.Specifically,human capital would lower birth rates on the whole.The increase of birth rates would weaken the negative effect,and the decrease of birth rates would strengthen the negative effect.In addition,based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2012,2013,2015 and2017,we found that the increase of human capital may reduce birth rate by reducing fertility intention and delaying fertility progress.

关 键 词：人力资本 人口出生率 收入法 生育意愿 生育进度 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F12