土岩接触带降雨滑坡变形地质灾害预测方法研究  

Study on prediction method of geological disasters caused by rainfall landslide deformation in soil-rock contact zone

作　　者：李科[1] Li Ke(China Railway Firs Survey And Design Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi′an 710043,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司,陕西西安710043

出　　处：《能源与环保》2022年第6期71-77,共7页CHINA ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC1505406)。

摘　　要：考虑到传统方法在预测滑坡变形地质灾害时存在预测效果不佳的问题,提出了土岩接触带降雨滑坡变形地质灾害预测方法研究。从基本因素和触发因素两方面,分析了影响土岩接触带降雨滑坡变形的因素,针对土岩接触带降雨滑坡变形地质灾害受控因素的复杂关系,利用动态数据驱动技术,处理了滑坡变形地质灾害监测数据,根据线性函数变换法归一化处理滑坡变形地质灾害监测数据,结合GIS技术构建滑坡变形地质灾害预测模型,实现了土岩接触带降雨滑坡变形地质灾害的预测。实例分析结果表明,应用本文方法预测滑坡变形地质灾害的次数能够与实际滑坡次数较为接近,具有较好的预测效果。Considering the poor prediction effect of traditional methods in predicting landslide deformation geological disasters,the prediction method of rainfall landslide deformation geological disasters in soil rock contact zone is proposed.From the two aspects of basic factors and trigger factors,the factors affecting rainfall landslide deformation in soil rock contact zone are analyzed.Aiming at the complex relationship between the controlled factors of rainfall landslide deformation and geological disasters in soil rock contact zone,the monitoring data of landslide deformation geological disasters are processed by using dynamic data-driven technology,and the monitoring data of landslide deformation geological disasters are normalized by linear function transformation method,combined with GIS technology,the prediction model of landslide deformation geological disaster is constructed,and the prediction of rainfall landslide deformation geological disaster in soil rock contact zone is realized.The case analysis results show that the number of landslide deformation geological disasters predicted by this method can be close to the actual number of landslides,and has a good prediction effect.

关 键 词：土岩接触带 地质灾害 滑坡变形 预测方法 监测数据 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]