区域公路网震后连通可靠性分析及系统功能恢复  

Connectivity Reliability Analysis and System Function Recovery of Post-earthquake Regional Highway Network

作　　者：蒋礼果 黄淑萍[1] JIANG Liguo;HUANG Shuping(School of Naval Architecture,Ocean and Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《地震研究》2022年第3期370-378,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51978397)资助.

摘　　要：为了研究区域公路网震后的连通功能,将连通可靠性作为评价指标,采用经验预测方法计算得到公路单元的抗震可靠性,使用事件树和成功树确定贝叶斯网络结构和条件概率表,然后将公路单元的抗震可靠性作为贝叶斯网络的先验概率输入,构建区域公路网连通可靠性分析模型。结合贝叶斯网络的敏感度分析和更新能力,提出一种启发式方法以识别关键单元的修复优先级,为路网系统连通功能恢复提供依据。以2008年汶川M_(S)8.0地震中G213和S9构成的区域公路网为研究对象,对该方法进行了实例应用,结果表明:提出的模型可建立起公路网结构破坏和系统连通功能之间的联系,启发式方法识别出的关键单元及其修复次序能够快速恢复区域公路网的连通可靠性。To study the post-earthquake connectivity of the regional highway network,the connectivity reliability is used as an index to calculate the aseismic capability of highway units through the empirical prediction.The event tree and success tree are used to determine the Bayesian network structure and conditional probability tables.Then,an analytical mode of connectivity reliability of regional highway network is constructed with the aseismic capability of highway units as prior probability.Based on the sensitivity analysis and Bayesian updating,a heuristic method is proposed for identifying the rehabilitation priority of critical units,which will provide support for recovering the connectivity of highway network system.The proposed model and methodology are applied to a regional highway network consisting of G213 Highway and S9 Road in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area.Results show that the proposed model integrates structural damage to the highway network with the connectivity of the highway network,and the critical units and their repair priority identified by the heuristic can significantly improve the connectivity of the regional highway network.

关 键 词：区域公路网 连通可靠性 贝叶斯网络 公路单元 系统功能恢复 汶川地震 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]