南水北调东线工程江苏段中长期优化调度研究  

Study on medium and long-term optimal dispatching of Jiangsu section of Estern Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：闻昕[1] 李精艺 谭乔凤 茆云泽 丁紫玉 王浩[2] WEN Xin;LI Jingyi;TAN Qiaofeng;MAO Yunze;DING Ziyu;WANG Hao(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2022年第6期65-77,共13页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079040);江苏水利科技项目(2019027,2021006)。

摘　　要：在南水北调东线工程主要水源中长期来水预报精度不高且预见期有限的情况下,对调水系统进行科学调度和滚动决策是江苏段综合效益能否充分发挥的关键。本文提出了基于余留期调度成本函数的两阶段随机优化调度方法,在考虑预报不确定性条件下实现工程的中长期滚动调度决策。首先分析各工程单元调度运行规则,基于水量平衡原理提出系统调水成本计算方法;然后分析主要水源历史来水规律,建立余留期成本函数定量表示余留期调水成本;最后针对不同来水条件分别建立两阶段决策模型,滚动生成中长期水量调度方案。结果表明,两阶段决策模型能够克服中长期预报不确定性对调度决策的不利影响,通过多水源互济互调、水源和线路选择有效降低调水成本。For the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the prediction accuracy of its medium and long-term water inflows from the major water sources is not high enough, and the forecast period is limited. Under this circumstance, how to conduct scientific scheduling and rolling decision-making for such a complex systems is the key to a full realization of the comprehensive benefits of the Jiangsu section of this route. This paper presents a new two-stage stochastic optimization scheduling method based on a residual period scheduling cost function, which can realize a medium and long-term rolling scheduling decision for the project under the condition of forecast uncertainty. First, we examine scheduling operation rules for each project unit, and work out a calculation method of system water transfer cost by the principle of water balance. Then, we reveal the trend of historical water inflows from the main water sources, and derive a residual period cost function as a quantitative description of the residual period water transfer cost. Finally, a two-stage decision-making model is constructed for different inflows, and a medium and long-term flow scheduling scheme is generated in a rolling manner. The results show that this two-stage model can overcome the adverse effects of medium and long-term forecast uncertainty on dispatching decision-making, and reduce the cost of water transfer significantly through adjusting mutual across multiple water sources and selecting water sources and transfer routes.

关 键 词：不确定性 跨流域调水 两阶段决策 中长期调度 余留期成本 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]