基于地面观测资料的全球高温阈值探讨  

Study on Global High Temperature Threshold Values Based on Surface Observation Data

作　　者：杨舒楠 孟庆涛 周宁芳 赵威 Yang Shunan;Meng Qingtao;Zhou Ningfang;Zhao Wei(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China;CMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for HydroMeteorological Studies,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局-河海大学水文气象研究联合实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2022年第1期10-21,共12页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(编号:2018YFC1505704);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41575090)。

摘　　要：利用全球地面观测数据,筛选整理得到相对完整的1990—2019年全球1969个站点逐日最高气温资料集,并采用实际累积概率分布阈值计算方法,对全球(不包括非洲)高温阈值进行统计分析。结果表明:1)以实际最热三个月为统计时间窗、以90百分位数为高温阈值的计算方法较为合理,能较好反映最高气温的极端性,且与中国业务标准和习惯较吻合。2)全球高温阈值总体从赤道向两极递减,但受气候、海陆差异、海拔等影响,不同地区差异显著。温带地区高温阈值受纬度影响最明显,在热带地区受气候类型影响更显著。海洋气候及高海拔地区高温阈值较同纬度其他地区低。3)亚洲高温阈值区域差异显著,东亚季风区30—36℃,中南半岛37—40℃,印度半岛、中亚、阿拉伯半岛阈值均超过40℃,其中阿拉伯半岛可达42—48℃。欧洲大陆和北美洲高温阈值总体从南向北递减,大值中心分别位于伊比利亚半岛、巴尔干半岛(34—40℃)和美国西南部沙漠气候区(40—44℃),45°N以北地区高温阈值普遍低于32℃。南美洲除沿海和西部高海拔地区外,高温阈值总体较均匀(34—37℃)。大洋洲高温阈值分布极不均匀,澳大利亚北侧和东侧地区32—35℃,中西部沙漠地区40—41℃。Based on the data of Global Surface Summary of the Day(GSOD),the relatively complete and continuous daily maximum temperature data set of 1969 stations all over the world from 1990 to 2019 was established,and the global high temperature threshold value was statistically calculated by using the method of actual cumulative probability distribution.The results showed that:1)It was reasonable to take the actual hottest three months as the statistical time window and the 90 th percentile of the daily maximum temperature as the high temperature threshold value,which can better reflect the extremity of annual maximum temperature and was in good agreement with the operational hot wave standards and habits in China.2)As a whole,the global high temperature threshold decreased from the equator to the poles,but affected by the climate characteristics,land-sea differences,and altitude,etc..Different regions presented significant differences in the threshold values.For temperate climate regions,the threshold value was affected more obviously by latitude,while for tropical areas the influence of climate type was more significant.The threshold value of marine climate and high altitude areas was much lower compared with that of other areas at the same latitude.3)There were significant regional differences in high temperature thresholds in Asia,such as:30-36℃in East Asian monsoon climate region;37-40℃in Indo China Peninsula;and over 40℃in Indian peninsula,Central Asia and Arabian Peninsula.The highest threshold occurred in the Arabian Peninsula,reaching up to 42-48℃.The high temperature thresholds in European continent and North America decreased from south to north.The highest thresholds in Europe and North America appeared in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balkan Peninsula(34-40℃),and the desert climate regions in the southwest of the United States(40-44℃),respectively.The thresholds in the north of 45°N were generally lower than 32℃.In South America,except for the coastal and western high-altitude areas,the high t

关 键 词：最高气温 阈值 概率分布 百分位数 全球 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]