煤层煤与瓦斯突出多指标量化评价方法探讨  

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Coal Seam Coal and Gas Outburst Hazard

作　　者：于世雷 佘九华 张羽 陈小林 周立林 王健 YU Shilei;SHE Jiuhua;ZHANG Yu;CHEN Xiaolin;ZHOU Lilin;WANG Jian(China Coal Technology and Engineering Group Changzhou Research Institute,Changzhou 213015,China;Tiandi(Changzhou)Automation Co.,Ltd.,Changzhou 213015,China)

机构地区：[1]中煤科工集团常州研究院,江苏常州213015 [2]天地(常州)自动化股份有限公司,江苏常州213015

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2022年第5期119-124,共6页Coal Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801804)。

摘　　要：为解决单一指标评价区域煤层瓦斯突出不能全面反映煤层煤与瓦斯突出的合理性问题,将层次分析法(PHA)与线性插值法相结合,以影响煤与瓦斯突出的瓦斯压力、地应力、破坏类型、坚固系数及瓦斯放散初速度五大因素为指标构造瓦斯突出评价模型。模型根据引起煤与瓦斯突出的主次赋予权重,同时以煤与瓦斯突出鉴定的单项指标临界值作为中性参照对象,结合被评价煤层的指标评分计算规则,计算出被评价煤层的实时评分,评分越高煤与瓦斯突出威胁相对较小,反之,则威胁越大。结果表明,该方法可实现多指标综合性评价区域煤层瓦斯突出危险性评价,工程实践也验证了该方法是可行的,并对现场具有一定的指导作用。In order to improve the rationality of the risk evaluation of coal and gas outburst in coal seam,the analytic hierarchy process(PHA)and linear interpolation method are combined to construct the gas outburst evaluation model with five factors that affect the gas pressure,ground stress,failure type,solid coefficient and initial velocity of gas release.The model gives weight according to the primary and secondary causes of coal and gas outburst,and takes the single index critical value of coal and gas outburst identification as a neutral reference object.Combined with the index scoring calculation rules of the evaluated coal seam,the real-time score of the evaluated coal seam is calculated.The higher the score,the smaller the threat of coal and gas outburst,and vice versa.The results show that this method can realize the real-time quantitative evaluation of gas outburst risk,and the engineering practice also verifies that this method is feasible and has certain guiding significance for the field.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 风险评价 层次分析法 线性插值理论 中性参照对象 

分 类 号：TD713.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]