暴雨灾害预警信息传播渠道及社会管理机制分析  

Analysis on the dissemination way and social management strategy of early warning information of rainstorm disaster

作　　者：李傲 高媛 崔春光[2] LI Ao;GAO Yuan;CUI Chunguang(Hubei public meteorological service center,Wuhan 430074;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Resech,Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan 430205)

机构地区：[1]湖北省公众气象服务中心,武汉430074 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2022年第3期348-354,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41620104009,91637211)。

摘　　要：在分析我国暴雨灾害发生情况与预警情况的基础上,对气象预警信息尤其是暴雨灾害预警信息的传播渠道进行了详细分析并提出了社会管理机制。分析结果表明:我国暴雨灾害发生频率呈逐年加大趋势,暴雨灾害已经成为造成我国重大人员伤亡和经济损失的重要自然灾害;加强暴雨灾害监测能力建设、深入开展暴雨基础理论研究、努力提升暴雨灾害预警预报业务水平是提高暴雨灾害预警信息准确率的有效途径;天气实况是公众获取的最重要的气象信息,而未来3 d内的短期预报则最受人们关注,近10多年手机已成为公众获取气象信息最主要的工具和手段,手机APP已连续多年成为公众最常使用的气象服务传播渠道,公众对各种渠道获取气象预警信息的关注度明显增加;快速发布预警信息是提升预警信息有效覆盖率的关键策略,要在最短的时间内将预警信息传播到各级管理者及公众手中,必须充分利用新技术,建设基于“云+端”构架的一体化预警信息发布平台,实现预警信息“一键式”发布和多渠道传播,实现预警发布全流程监控管理;信息传播、信息反馈、应急联动是暴雨灾害预警信息管理机制的三个重要组成部分,三者缺一不可。This study analyzes the occurrence and early warning of rainstorm disasters in China. It also analyzes the ways of communication of meteorological early warning information in detail, especially about early warning information of rainstorm disaster. In addition, this study also proposes some strategies for social management. The results show that the frequency of rainstorm disasters in China keeps increasing in recent years, which have caused heavy casualties and economic losses in China. The effective ways to improve the accuracy of early warning information of rainstorm disaster are to strengthen the monitoring capability of rainstorm disaster, conduct more researches of rainstorm, and improve the operational prediction and early warning of rainstorm disaster. Weather situation is the most important meteorological information needed by the public, particularly for the next 3-day. Mobile app has become the most frequently used communication way of meteorological service for the public for the last decade. The public has also paid more attention to obtaining meteorological early warning information through various ways. The rapid release is the key strategy to improve the effective coverage of early warning information. In order to spread the early warning information to the managers at all levels and the public in the shortest time, we must make full use of some new technologies and build an integrated release platform of early warning information based on the "cloud + end" architecture. In this way, the "one click" release and multi-way dissemination of early warning information can be realized. In addition, the monitoring and management of the whole process of early warning can be achieved. Finally, we conclude that the management strategies of early warning information of rainstorm disaster must include information dissemination, timely feedback, and simultaneous emergency actions.

关 键 词：气象预警信息 暴雨灾害预警信息 传播渠道 公众有效覆盖率 社会管理机制 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]