公共养老能替代土地养老吗——来自“新农保”影响农地租出的经验证据  

Can Public Pension Replace Land Pension:Evidence from the Impact of New Rural Pension Insurance on Farmland Lease

作　　者：汪险生 李宁 胡平峰[3] 金晶 WANG Xiansheng;LI Ning;HU Pingfeng;JIN Jing

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学公共管理学院,南京211815 [2]南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心,南京210003 [3]江苏省社会科学院,南京210014

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2022年第5期124-143,共20页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“确权背景下地权安全性与农村人口流动研究”(编号:71603123);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“农地三权有效分置的约束条件及其组织治理研究:基于地权结构细分的视角”(编号:71703063);国家社科基金项目“土地生态安全的监管困境及协同治理研究”(编号:19BJY047);江西省社会科学规划项目“农村土地流转对乡村振兴战略的作用研究”(编号:18KS23);江苏省第十五批“六大人才高峰”高层次人才A类项目“现代农业发展背景下的地权制度改革研究:机理分析、绩效研究与治理逻辑”(编号:JY-016)江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助项目。

摘　　要：地权交易能够提升地权价值,从而能进一步增强土地养老保障功能。因此,土地租出与土地养老其实并不冲突,新农保能通过替代土地养老而促进土地租出的命题也就难以成立。同时,农民早期缴费档次低,使得早期参加新农保有较高的收益率,这可能促成早期参保对农地租出有促进作用和对土地养老有替代效果。为此,本文利用2010—2018年5期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,以2012年处于缴费期的中老年人为样本,运用双重差分方法考察了农户参保对土地租出的影响及其机制。研究发现,农户参保后土地租出率平均下降了2.4个百分点。参保收益率和贴现率在不同群体间的差异,使参保对土地租出的影响呈现异质性,体现为老年人口参保收益率较高和低收入群体贴现率较高,导致参保后土地租出率的下降主要发生在无老年人家庭和低收入家庭中;男性参保收益率更低导致家庭男性参保更会使土地租出率下降。机制分析显示参保降低了家庭的闲暇消费,促进了农户从事自家农业,尤其提高了家庭女性的劳动供给。结果表明新农保对土地养老的替代关系并不存在。Land rights transaction can strengthen the function of land pension by enhancing the value of land rights.Therefore,land lease and land pension are not in conflict,which means that it is difficult to establish the proposition that the New Rural Pension Insurance(NRPI)can promote land lease by replacing land pension.Moreover,the low level of payment of NRPI has made the rate of early participation in NRPI higher,which may cause the early participation in NRPI to promote agricultural land lease and have substitution effect on land pension.This paper uses the data from the 5 th China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018 and applies difference-in-difference method to examine the impact of NRPI on land lease and its mechanism with the sample of middle-aged and older persons at the payment stage in 2012.It finds that the land lease rate dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points after participating in NRPI.The difference in the return rate and discount rate of insurance participation of different groups makes the impact of participation in NRPI on lease out to be heterogeneous,which is reflected in that the higher rate of return of the elderly population and the higher discount rate of low-income groups make the decrease in land lease rate after participating in NRPI mainly occurs in families without the elderly and low-income families,and that male participation yields are lower makes participation in NRPI of men even lower the possibility of families renting out land.Mechanism analysis shows that participation in NRPI reduced the family’s leisure consumption and increased the possibility of farmers engaging in their own farming,specially increased labor supply of women.These findings suggest that NRPI has no substitute relationship with land pension.

关 键 词：新农保 土地租出 劳动供给 土地养老 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F323.89