2010-2019年兰州市气象因素与0~5岁儿童其他感染性腹泻发病的时间序列研究  

A time series study on meteorological factors and incidence of other infectious diarrheas in children aged 0〜5 years in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2019

作　　者：薛宝德 吴翾[2] 李盛 王搏 罗斌[1] Xue Bao-de;Wu Xuan;Li Sheng;Wang Bo;Luo Bin(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Chengguan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730030,China;Department of Public Health,The First People's Hospital of Lanzhou City,Lanzhou 730050,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州市城关区疾病预防控制中心,甘肃4州730030 [3]兰州市第一人民医院公共卫生科,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（医学版）》2022年第5期30-37,共8页Journal of Lanzhou University（Medical Sciences）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(4187050043);兰州大学优秀青年支持计划资助项目(lzujbky-2021-ey07);甘肃省软科学专项基金资助项目(20CX4ZA028)。

摘　　要：目的探讨气象因素与儿童其他感染性腹泻(OID)的关系,为OID防控提供科学依据。方法收集2010-2019年兰州市城关区OID的日发病资料和气象数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型研究气象因素与OID的关系。结果2010-2019年兰州市城关区累计报告0~5岁儿童OID 10359例。高温和高日温差会增加儿童OID的发病风险,RR分别为2.97.1.63;高气压、高相对湿度与低日照时长会降低OID的发病风险,RR分别为0.36.0.19、0.64。高风速和低风速在滞后10~17d时呈现了一定的保护效应。男童和1~3岁幼儿在高温下更易患OID,低风速下幼儿患OID风险较低。结论各气象因素都与兰州市0-5岁儿童OID发病有关,高温和高日温差会增加OID的发病,且男童和1~3岁幼儿对高温更加敏感,应重点关注高温和温差较大天气对敏感人群健康的影响。Objective To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of other infectious diarrheas(OID)in children and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of OID.Methods The daily incidence data and meteorological data of OID in Chengguan District of Lanzhou from 2010 to 2019 were collected,the relationship between various meteorological factors and OID was studied via a distributed lag nonlinear model.Results From 2010 to 2019,a total of 10359 children aged 0~5 years with OID were reported in Chengguan District of Lanzhou.High temperature and high diurnal temperature range increased the risk of OID in them,RR was 2.97 and 1.63,while high air pressure,high relative humidity and low sunshine duration would reduce the risk of OID,their RR being 0.36,0.19 and 0.64,respectively.High and low wind speed had a protective effect on OID with a lag of 10-17 days.Boys and 1~3 years infants were more susceptible to OID in high temperature,1〜3 years infants had a lower risk of OID at a low wind speed.Conclusion Various meteorological factors were all related to the incidence of OID in children in Lanzhou aged 0~5 years.High temperature and large diurnal temperature range would significantly increase the incidence of other infectious diarrhea,boys and 1〜3 years infants were more sensitive to high temperature.Focus should be on the impact of high temperature and large diurnal temperature range on the health of sensitive populations.

关 键 词：感染性腹泻 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]