浙江宁波市2020年秋冬旱情评估及预测指标分析  

Evaluation and the predictive index discussion of the drought from autumn to winter of 2020 in Ningbo City of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：杜蓓蓓 许洁 魏芳芳 DU Beibei;XU Jie;WEI Fangfang(Ningbo Hydrology Station,Ningbo 315020)

机构地区：[1]宁波市水文站,宁波315020

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2022年第6期49-53,66,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：浙江宁波市2020年秋冬季降水连续偏少,各区县都发生了不同程度的旱情。基于63个国家雨量站,采用连续无雨日法和降水距平法对2020年秋冬旱情和历年同期的旱情进行评估。统计历史资料,分析计算了2020年秋冬季的月干燥指数和水库蓄控比,并与历史同期数据进行对比。结果表明2020年秋冬季旱情为中度干旱,是宁波市近30年比较严重的年份之一。降水距平法联合评价法可对长时间干旱做出合理地评估。月干燥指数和水库蓄控比可以用来预测干旱的发生。From autumn to winter of 2020,the precipitation had been relatively smaller in Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province.Various districts and counties had suffered from different degrees of drought.Based on the data of 63 national rainfall stations,the evaluation on the drought from autumn to winter of 2020 and the drought in the same period of the past years was evaluated by the methods of the continuous no-rain day and the precipitation anomaly.The monthly drying index and reservoir storage control ratio in autumn and winter of 2020 are analyzed and calculated based on historical data and compared with historical data in the same period.The results indicate that the drought from autumn to winter of 2020 is moderate drought,which is one of the most serious years in Ningbo City in the past 30 years.The combined evaluation method of the precipitation anomaly method can be reasonably used to evaluate the long-term drought.It’s put forward that the monthly dryness index and storage control ratio of reservoirs can be used to predict the occurrence of drought.

关 键 词：宁波市 干旱等级 干燥指数 旱情评估 2020年 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]