千百年尺度祁连山地区干湿变化对暖期的响应  

Response of dry-wet change to millennial and centennial warm periods in the Qilian Mountains

作　　者：周雪如 李育[1] ZHOU Xueru;LI Yu(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Center for Hydrologic Cycle andWater Resources in Arid Region,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院干旱区水循环与水资源研究中心,兰州730000

出　　处：《地理学报》2022年第5期1138-1152,共15页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42077415);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0202)。

摘　　要：全球升温导致区域干湿格局转变,千年尺度中全新世暖期和百年尺度中世纪暖期可以为探究现代的气候趋势提供历史相似型。通过湖相沉积、冰芯、孢粉、树轮等古气候记录和PMIP3/CMIP5计划的古气候模型模拟数据对比分析,结果表明,祁连山地区中全新世暖期(7.2—6.0 ka BP)东亚夏季风强盛,降水较多,气候温暖湿润;中世纪暖期(950—1250 AD)与小冰期表现为暖干—冷湿气候机制。现代观测数据显示,祁连山地区呈现暖湿化,但现代的气候机制与自然因子主导下暖期的响应机制差异较大,表明了人类活动对自然发展下气候环境的影响。因此,自然因素与人类活动共同作用是准确预测研究区未来干湿格局的基础。Due to global warming,dry-wet condition of the Qilian Mountains has experienced significant change in recent decades.Thus,predicting future climate change is critical for studies on the environmental evolution.To explore the climate trends under increasing temperature,we took the millennial-scale Middle Holocene Warm Period and the centennialscale Medieval Warm Period,as"historical analogues"to compare with undergoing global warming.In this paper,we integrated abundant paleoclimate records(e.g.,fluvio-lacustrine deposits,ice cores,pollen,and tree rings)in the Qilian Mountains region and paleoclimatic model simulation of the PMIP3/CMIP5 project to assess the response of dry-wet change during warm periods.Results show that strong East Asian summer monsoon brought a warm and humid climate with more precipitation during the Mid-Holocene warm period(7.2-6.0 ka BP).The Medieval Warm Period(950-1250 AD)and the little ice period show a combination of warm-dry and cold-wet climate.Modern observational data show that the climate of the study region is becoming warm and humid.Modern climates have similarities with historical warm periods at millennial and centennial scales.However,the historical analogues are due to the orbital parameters and insolation.In modern warm period they are caused by greenhouse gases and human activities.Therefore,in order to predict the future dry and wet pattern in the study area accurately,the joint effect of natural factors and human activities should be elucidated.

关 键 词：祁连山 中全新世暖期 中世纪暖期 现代暖期 干湿变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]