长江上游平原丘陵区农业非点源污染输出特征和驱动机制  

Output Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Agricultural Non-point Source(AGNPS)Pollutant in Plain and Valley Region of Upper Yangtze River,China

作　　者：谭少军 刘洋 朱小婕 刘荷 邵景安[2] 邓华[3] TAN Shao-jun;LIU Yang;ZHU Xiao-jie;LIU He;SHAO Jing-an;DENG Hua(College of Resource and Environment,Southwest University,Chongqing 400700,China;College of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Chongqing Youth Vocational and Technical College,Chongqing 400712,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400700 [2]重庆师范大学地理和旅游学院,重庆401331 [3]重庆青年职业技术学院,重庆400712

出　　处：《环境科学》2022年第6期3128-3139,共12页Environmental Science

基　　金：重庆市基础科学与前沿技术研究专项(cstc2017jcyjBX0024);重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项(cstc2019jscx-gksbX0060);2018年院士牵头科技创新引导专项;重庆市教委科技项目(KJZD-K20180410);重庆市教委科技项目(KJZD-K202004101)。

摘　　要：农村非点源污染格局和机制研究对于区域生态环境治理意义重大.以长江上游平原丘陵区为研究区,借助多元数据,提出一种基于空间距离修正的污染物测算方法,利用克里金(Kriging)插值和逻辑回归(LR)方法研究农村非点源污染物的排放格局和影响机制.结果表明,2005~2015年间COD、BOD_(5)、NH_(4)^(+)-N、TN和TP排放总量分别增加15.46×10^(4)、25.66×10^(4)、3.49×10^(4)、1.26×10^(4)和0.38×10^(4) t.成都平原、川中丘陵和川东平行岭谷耕作区是排放量高值区,而城镇城区和三峡库区腹地是低值区.COD、BOD_(5)和NH_(4)^(+)-N整体风险等级有所增加,TN整体排放风险等级有所增加,TP整体排放风险偏高且有继续恶化的趋势.综合风险等级呈“中部高,四周低”的空间格局,极高和次高风险等级呈镶嵌分布,成都平原和川东平行岭谷区为高风险集聚区.2005~2010年间非点源污染主要驱动因素为粮食产量、畜禽产量和乡村人口数,表现为“生产驱动型”,而2010~2015年间农民人均纯收入、粮食产量、畜禽产量、国民生产总值和年均降水量是主要驱动因素,表现为“生产和生活协同驱动型”.研究成果可为分析长江上游平原丘陵区非点源污染驱动机制和防控提供一定依据.Research on the pattern and mechanism of agricultural non-point source(AGNPS)pollution in rural areas is of great significance to the governance of the regional ecological environment.This study took the plain and hilly area of the upper Yangtze River as the research area,relied on multivariate data,and used a pollutant measurement method based on spatial distance correction,and Kriging interpolation and logistic regression methods(LR)were used to study the emission pattern and impact mechanism of AGNPS pollutants.The results showed that the total emissions of COD,BOD_(5),NH_(4)^(+)-N,TN,and TP increased by 15.46×10^(4),25.66×10^(4),3.49×10^(4),1.26×10^(4),and 0.38×10^(4) t,respectively,and the emissions of these five pollutants had strong spatial regularity from 2005 to 2015.The Chengdu Plain,the hills in central Sichuan,and the parallel ridge valley farming areas in eastern Sichuan were the high-value areas,whereas urban areas and hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGRA)were low-value areas.The risk levels of COD,BOD_(5),and NH_(4)^(+)-N increased;TN pollution was more serious;and the emission risk level was gradually increasing.The emission risk of TP was high and had a tendency to continue to deteriorate.The overall risk level was in a spatial pattern of“high in the middle and low in the surrounding area,”with extremely high and second-highest risk levels in a mosaic distribution.The Chengdu Plain and the Parallel Ridge and Valley areas in eastern Sichuan were high-risk clusters.The main driving factors of non-point source pollution from 2005 to 2010 were grain output,livestock and poultry production,and the number of rural populations,which were categorized as“production-driven”GDP and annual average precipitation were the main driving factors,which were categorized as“production and life synergy-driven.”These results can provide a basis for analyzing the driving mechanism and prevention and control of NPSP in the hilly area of the upper Yangtze River.

关 键 词：农业非点源 输出特征 驱动机制 长江上游 平原丘陵区 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]