基于生态承载力分析的雷电衍生污染物风险预警研究  

Early Risk Warning of Lightning-derived Pollutants Based on Ecological Carrying Capacity

作　　者：陈雯 Chen Wen(Shanxi Province Emergency Early Warning Information Release Center, Xi'an 710014, China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省突发事件预警信息发布中心,陕西西安710014

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2022年第6期72-76,共5页Environmental Science and Management

摘　　要：为了解决当前方法的预警指标相关性较差的问题,提出基于生态承载力分析的雷电衍生污染物风险预警研究。从雷电区域的环境、资源、社会、经济四个方面评估整个区域的生态承载力,以此作为依据,结合雷电衍生污染物的毒性和暴露风险计算污染物的风险指数,按照计算结果的污染物风险预警等级,针对不同的预警等级建立时间响应函数,以便实现对目标风险的及时预警。实验结果表明设计的基于生态承载力的风险预警方法获得的污染物浓度与实际值动态误差小,并且各个风险指标之间互相关性强,该方法的动态预测效果得到了增强。In order to solve the problem of poor correlation of early warning indicators in current methods,this study proposed a risk early warning study of lightning derived pollutants based on ecological carrying capacity analysis.The ecological carrying capacity of the whole region is evaluated from the four aspects of environment,resources,society and economy of the lightning area.Based on this,the risk index of pollutants is calculated in combination with the toxicity and exposure risk of lightning derived pollutants.According to the calculated pollutant risk early warning level,a time response function is established for different early warning levels,so as to realize the timely early warning of target risk.The experimental results show that the dynamic error between the pollutant concentration and the actual value obtained by the designed risk early warning method based on ecological carrying capacity is small,and the correlation between each risk index is strong,and the dynamic prediction effect of this method is enhanced.

关 键 词：生态系统 承载力分析 雷电衍生污染物 风险预警 生态灾害 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]