中国少数民族生育转变:过程及影响因素  

Fertility Transition of Chinese Ethnic Minorities: Trends and Determinants

作　　者：王东晖 靳永爱[1] 刘涛[2] Wang Donghui;Jin Yongai;Liu Tao(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Center for Urban Future Research,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院、未来城市研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《人口研究》2022年第3期30-43,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国第二次人口转变的空间分布及产生机制研究”(21CRK001);中国人民大学“双一流”跨学科重大创新规划平台“铸牢中华民族共同体意识跨学科交叉平台”的支持。

摘　　要：少数民族生育转变是中国人口转变的重要组成部分。研究少数民族生育转变为认识中国生育转变历程提供了多样视角。使用历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查微观数据描述了不同少数民族生育指标的变化,并使用分层线性模型区分了民族内部以及民族之间的差异如何解释不同民族生育行为的差异。研究发现,各民族的总和生育率都呈现下降趋势,2000年以后大多数民族的总和生育率接近或低于更替水平,部分民族的总和生育率近年来略有回升。少数民族生育行为存在很强的异质性,不同民族生育模式不同。民族特征对生育行为的影响仍然存在但随时间推移逐渐降低,民族内部的个体社会经济特征差异超越民族之间的差异成为影响少数民族生育行为的主导因素。Fertility transition of ethnic minorities is an integral part of the demographic transition of China. Studying fertility transition among different ethnic groups offers a new perspective in understanding fertility transition in China. This study uses multiple waves of micro census to describe fertility transitions of different ethnic minority groups. Utilizing multilevel models, this study also identifies the between and within group determinants of ethnic minority fertility behaviors. Results show that similar to Han Chinese, ethnic minorities also experienced fertility decline over the past forty decades. Yet their rates of decline were modest. Most ethnic minority groups reached near replacement-level fertility since 2000, and some saw modest increase in the recent decade. There exist heterogeneities within ethnic groups. Different ethnic groups exhibit different fertility patterns. The multilevel analysis results show that ethnic-specific traits had diminishing yet still significant impact on fertility behaviors. Within ethnic group differences account for a larger part of the total fertility variations.

关 键 词：少数民族 生育转变 总和生育率 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] C954