消费结构升级与高质量增长:机制与评估  

Consumption Structure Upgrade and High-quality Growth:Mechanism and Evaluation

作　　者：楠玉[1,2] NAN Yu(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100836;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2022年第3期11-23,共13页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“消费与人力资本关联机制及其对创新效率影响研究”(20CJL032)。

摘　　要：城市化阶段要实现向高收入阶段的迈进,需要摆脱大规模工业化阶段以产品供给为核心的增长模式,积极重塑以要素质量高端化为核心的发展模式,充分发挥城市化阶段的消费带动功能,从而实现增长效率持续改进和高质量增长。就消费结构升级能否引致经济高质量增长及其理论机制进行探索,并运用中介效应模型对影响机制进行检验。研究结果显示:消费结构升级能显著促进经济高质量增长;消费结构升级通过产业结构升级和人力资本结构升级引致高质量增长的中介效应是显著且有效的;消费结构升级通过产业结构升级引致高质量增长的中介效应为9.28%~9.46%,消费结构升级通过人力资本结构升级引致高质量增长的中介效应为75.72%~84.46%。未来,中国应确立以消费结构升级为主导、以人力资本积累为基础、以现代服务业发展为支撑的新型效率模式,这是中国向高质量发展阶段迈进的目标取向。To move towards a high-income stage in the urbanization stage,it is necessary to get rid of the growth model centered on product supply in the large-scale industrialization stage,actively reshape the development model centered on high-end factor quality,and give full play to the consumption drive in the urbanization stage.so as to achieve continuous improvements in growth efficiency and high-quality growth.This paper explores whether the upgrading of consumption structure can lead to high-quality economic growth and its theoretical mechanism,and uses the intermediary effect model to test the influence mechanism.It is found that the upgrading of consumption structure can significantly promote high-quality economic growth.The mediating effect of the upgrading of the consumption structure through the upgrading of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the human capital structure is significant and effective.The scope of the specific intermediary effect is calculated,namely.the intermediary effect of high-quality growth caused by the upgrading of the consumption structure through the upgrading of the industrial structure is between 9.28%and 9.46%,and the intermediary effect of high-quality growth caused by the upgrading of the consumption structure through the upgrading of the human capital structure is between 75.72%and 84.46%.In the future,the establishment of a new type of efficiency model led by the upgrading of consumption structure,based on human capital accumulation,and supported by the development of modern service industries is orientation of China's striding forward to the stage of high-quality development.

关 键 词：消费结构升级 国内大循环 高质量增长 产业结构升级 人力资本升级 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]