用水总量对农业节水灌溉的影响分析和模拟预测  

Analysis and Simulation Prediction of the Impact of Total Water Consumption on Agricultural Water-saving Irrigation

作　　者：陈立康 寿程虹 周劲节 龙慧林 姜美君 刘建超 Chen Likang;Shou Chenghong;Zhou Jinjie;Long Huilin;Jiang Meijun;Liu Jianchao(Zhuji Economic Specialty Station,Zhuji 311800,Zhejiang,China;Jiyang College,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Zhuji 311800,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]诸暨市经济特产站,浙江诸暨311800 [2]浙江农林大学暨阳学院,浙江诸暨311800

出　　处：《农业技术与装备》2022年第4期53-56,共4页Agricultural Technology & Equipment

摘　　要：文章利用SPSS软件,对2000年—2020年的农用节水灌溉机械、大型水库容量、节水灌溉面积、农田灌溉面积、农田灌溉用水量来建立线性回归模型并进行相关性的分析。确定对用水总量影响程度较高的自变量,确定其影响原因并给未来变化新态势下中国节水灌溉业的合理布局提供科学依据。经过多元线性回归模型的验证,数值的模拟结果为优秀,得出大型水库容量和节水灌溉面积对用水总量有较大的影响关系。通过对用水总量的不同影响因素分析,和国内外的市场变化,来定制准确的发展计划,获取最大的发展动力和经济效益。Using SPSS software, this paper establishes a linear regression model and analyzes the correlation of agricultural watersaving irrigation machinery, large reservoir capacity, water-saving irrigation area, farmland irrigation area and farmland irrigation water consumption from 2000 to 2020. Determine the independent variables that have a high impact on the total amount of water use,determine the causes of their impact, and provide a scientific basis for the rational layout of China’s water-saving irrigation industry under the new trend of future changes. Through the verification of multiple linear regression model, the numerical simulation results are excellent, and it is concluded that the capacity of large reservoir and water-saving irrigation area have a great impact on the total water consumption. Through the analysis of different influencing factors of total water consumption and market changes at home and abroad, we can customize accurate development plans and obtain the maximum development power and economic benefits.

关 键 词：用水量 灌溉机械 水库容量 灌溉面积 多元回归 

分 类 号：S274.4[农业科学—农业水土工程]