降费新政下人口老龄化对职工养老保险基金收支平衡影响的比较静态分析  

Comparative Static Analysis of the Impact of Population Aging on the Balance of Income and Expenditure of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban Employees under the New Deal of Reduction for Contribution Base and Premium Rate

作　　者：贾洪波[1] 郝姣姣 JIA Hong-bo;HAO Jiao-jiao(Research Center for Social Security of Beihang University,Beijing,100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学社会保障研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《人口与发展》2022年第3期15-30,共16页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074016);国家社科基金重大项目(批准号:20&ZD077);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(YWF-21-BJ-W-127)。

摘　　要：降低单位缴费率和缴费基数以及人口老龄化对城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡会产生多重影响。在“混账”管理情况下,费率和费基双降比费率和费基没有降低的情况下使社会统筹账户引致更小规模的个人账户亏空,个人账户基金的年度空账规模会略微变小。在“混账”管理情况下,从长期来看,费率和费基双降比费率和费基没有降低的情况下个人账户反向引致社会统筹账户亏空的情况有所改善,补充个人账户缺口后社会统筹账户的基金缺口变小。无论费率和费基双降、单降或者不降,人口老龄化均不利于城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡。The reduction for contribution base and premium rate as well as the aging of the population will have multiple effects on the balance of income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban employees.In the case of mixing social pooling account and individual account, the double reduction of contribution base and premium rate will make the social pooling account empty the individual account to a smaller extent than the case of no reduction for contribution base and premium rate, and the annual deficit size of the individual account fund will be slightly smaller.In the case of mixing social pooling account and individual account,in the long run,the reverse empty of the social pooling account by the individual account will be improved under the circumstance of the double reduction of contribution base and premium rate than the case of no reduction for contribution base and premium rate,and the fund gap of the social pooling account will become smaller after the gap of the individual account is replenished. Regardless of the double,single or no reduction in the contribution base and premium rate,the population aging will not be conducive to the balance of income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban employees.

关 键 词：降低缴费基数 降低缴费率 人口老龄化 职工基本养老保险基金 比较静态 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]