中国生育水平回升的可能性:基于北欧国家历史经验的分析  

Possibility of China′s Fertility Rebound: Analysis Based on the Historical Experience of Nordic Countries

作　　者：陈佳鞠 靳永爱[2] 夏海燕 朱小涵 CHEN Jia-ju;JIN Yong-ai;XIA Hia-yan;ZHU Xiao-han(Editorial Board of Population Research,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学《人口研究》编辑部,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口与发展》2022年第3期79-89,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项项目“新时代中国特色人口学基本理论问题研究”(19VXK07)。

摘　　要：基于北欧国家独特的生育率波动历程,总结出低生育率背景下生育水平的回升机制,进而探讨中国生育水平回升的可能性。研究发现:在后生育转变阶段想要实现生育率回升需要具备良好的经济社会条件、全方位的性别平等环境、有助于生育实现的文化氛围、开放包容的婚育观念行为、提供多方面支持的生育友好政策;中国未来生育水平回升既面临诸多积极因素,也面临诸多消极因素。积极因素包括:尚未实现的生育意愿、重视家庭的文化土壤、存在有较高生育意愿的地区、生育推迟效应将逐渐放缓、经济社会发展水平将持续提高等;消极因素包括:低生育意愿和行为不断蔓延、婚育适龄群体生存压力大、儿童养育成本攀升、公共政策支持缺位、公私领域性别分工不合理等。想要真正提振中国民众生育意愿、有效提升生育水平,需要多措并举,全方位化解人们生育的后顾之忧。Based on the unique history of fertility fluctuations in Nordic countries, this paper summarizes the rebound mechanism of fertility under the background of low fertility rate, and then discusses the rebound possibility of China′s fertility.The results show that in the stage of post-transitional fertility, to realize the rebound of fertility requires good economic and social conditions, a comprehensive gender equality environment, a cultural atmosphere conducive to the realization of fertility, an open and inclusive concept and behavior of marriage and childbirth,and a family-friendly policy system that provides multifaceted support. The unfulfilled fertility desire,a culture that values family,the regions with higher fertility desire,the slowdown of childbearing postponement,and the further improvement of the level of socioeconomic development will promote the rebound of China’s fertility. However,the continuous spread of low fertility desire and fertility rate,the high living pressure of the young groups,the rising cost of child rearing,the lack of public policy support,and the gender inequality in the public and private fields will negatively impact the rebound of China’s fertility. In order to truly boost the fertility desire of Chinese people and effectively improve China’s future fertility rate,multiple measures need to be taken to resolve people’s worries about childbearing in an all-round way.

关 键 词：北欧国家 总和生育率 低生育率 生育率回升 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]