我国货币政策与产业结构优化升级——基于非线性调控的新视角  

Monetary Policies and the Industrial Structure Optimization--The New View of Nonlinear Policy Regulation

作　　者：许泽想 Xu Zexiang(Wenhua School,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学文华学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2022年第7期42-49,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“风险冲击、政府担保与最优宏观审慎政策研究--基于金融加速器视角”(项目编号:20YJC790172)

摘　　要：随着我国经济全面进入新常态,产业结构不合理的弊端频现,作为宏观经济调控重要手段的货币政策对产业结构优化升级至关重要,然而,货币政策对产业结构的影响在不同经济时期具有非线性效应。基于此,本文采取因子扩展方法和马尔科夫链对经典向量自回归模型进行了改进,检验了改进后各类模型的参数估计性质,并以检验出的最优模型研究了我国不同货币政策类型在不同经济时期对三次产业及产业结构高级化指数的非线性作用。研究发现:我国货币对产业结构调整存在明显的非线性效应,在经济处于低迷时期,紧缩的数量型及价格型货币政策更有利于经济走出泥淖,在经济处于高涨时期,宽松的数量型货币政策与紧缩的价格型货币政策搭配使用,更有助于产业结构优化升级。最后建议结合不同经济区制的特点,配合不同货币政策工具的使用,能够更精确的促进产业结构优化目标,实现货币政策预调、微调的实施要求。With China's economy has entered a new normal state,the drawbacks of unreasonable industrial structure are frequent.As an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control,monetary policy is crucial to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.However,the influence of monetary policy on industrial structure has non-linear effect in different economic periods.Base on that,we use factor expansion method and Markov chain to improve the classical vector autoregressive model,test the parameter estimation properties of the improved models,and study the non-linear effects of different monetary policy types on three industries and industrial structure upgrading index in different economic periods by using the tested optimal model.It is found that,China's monetary policy has obvious nonlinear effects on industrial restructuring;the quantitative and price-based monetary policies that are tightened when the economy is in a downturn are more conducive to the economy going out of the mud,and when the economy is in a period of high growth,the number of loose The combination of monetary policy and tight price monetary policy will help optimize and upgrade the industrial structure.At the end,we suggest that combining the characteristics of different economic zone systems and the use of different monetary policy tools can more accurately promote the optimization of industrial structure and realize the implementation requirements of monetary policy pre-adjustment and fine-tuning.

关 键 词：产业结构 货币政策 非线性作用 因子扩展方法 马尔科夫区制转移向量回归模型货币金融环境 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F121.3