东北地区人口迁移影响经济增长的传导机制研究  

A Study on the Transmission Mechanism of Population Migration Affecting Economic Growth in Northeast China

作　　者：柳清瑞[1] 王维华 Liu Qingrui;Wang Weihua(Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China;School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学人口研究所,沈阳110036 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110036

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2022年第7期152-160,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于养老保险全国统筹缴费与给付协调均衡研究”(项目编号:20CJY016);国家社会科学基金一般项目“东北人口变动趋势及其对东北经济振兴的影响研究”(项目编号:20BRK008)

摘　　要：东北地区人口净迁出已经持续了10年之久,这使得东北劳动力结构、产业结构、城市化水平以及区域经济结构都发生了深刻的变化,导致经济增长受到抑制甚至负增长,本研究旨在探索人口迁移影响经济增长传导机制的形成及每个环节彼此之间的相互关系,基于2001~2020年东三省数据的实证研究表明人口迁移到经济增长的传导路径清晰可见,并且确已形成一个传导链条;利用好这一传导规律,引导东北迁移人口有序流动,稳定东北人口数量是扭转东北经济增长缓慢的关键抓手,是协调经济资源配置的重要手段。〕The net out-migration of the population from the northeast has been lasted for ten years,which has brought about profound changes in the structure of the labor force,the industry,in the level of the urbanization and in the structure of regional economy,the purpose of this study is to explore how population migration affects the formation of the transmission mechanism of economic growth and the relationship between each link,the study based on the data of three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2020 shows that the transmission path of population migration to economic growth is clear and has formed a transmission chain.It is the key to reverse the slow economic growth of northeast China and an important means to coordinate the allocation of economic resources by making good use of this transmission law to guide the orderly flow of northeast migration population and to stabilize the population of northeast China.

关 键 词：人口迁移 经济增长 传导机制 东北地区 经济资源配置 劳资关系 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F127