2109号台风“卢碧”路径和强度特征及预报偏差分析  

An analysis on the track and intensity characteristics and forecast deviation of typhoon 2109 "Lupit"

作　　者：曾瑾瑜 林金凎 余洋 陈秋萍 尹丝雨 ZENG Jinyu;LIN Jingan;YU Yang;CHEN Qiuping;YIN Siyu(Fujian Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350008 China;Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350008 China)

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350008 [2]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350008

出　　处：《海洋预报》2022年第3期10-24,共15页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：福建省气象局开放式研究基金项目(2020K05)。

摘　　要：通过自动站、雷达、风廓线雷达等实况资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)全球模式细网格、0.25°×0.25°经纬度分辨率ERA-Interim再分析、WRF_ARW3.9.1数值模式等模式资料,对2109号南海台风“卢碧”的路径和强度进行诊断和预报偏差分析。结果表明:台风“卢碧”在季风槽中生成,副热带高压、高空槽和双台风等的变化和相互作用是导致其移速缓慢和路径曲折的原因;台风的移动一直没有脱离季风槽控制,总体受西南季风气流引导向东北方向移动;台风强度和结构的变化对台风路径亦有一定的影响。模式对南海台风的路径预报并不因时间的临近而趋于准确,仍存在误差,除了关注模式路径预报,更应分析本身预报形势调整引起的路径变化,也应多分析多参考几家模式。强风法则、变压和南亚高压均可作为台风移向的判别依据。地形敏感性试验表明,山脉地形对弱台风路径有一定的影响。台风强度偏弱,大风风圈半径小,在福建省沿海经历了短暂的减弱(6日5—16时)又增强过程,中部沿海在此时间段出现大风是由不同系统相互作用形成的。热带低压升级的时间偏晚,可考虑在17时前后提前将其升级为热带风暴。Based on the ground data of automatic station,radar and wind profiler,ERA-Interim reanalysis data produced by the ECMWF global fine grid with horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° and the WRF_ARW3.9.1numerical model data,the track and intensity of the typhoon "Lupit"(No.2109) in the South China Sea are diagnosed and the forecast deviation is analyzed.The results show that typhoon "Lupit" is formed in the monsoon trough,and the variation and interaction of subtropical high,high trough and double typhoons are the causes for its slow moving speed and tortuous track.The movement of the typhoon is constantly under the control of monsoon trough,and is moving northeastward generally guided by the southwest monsoon flow.The changes of typhoon intensity and structure also have a certain impact on the typhoon track.The errors in the typhoon track numerical forecasting is still significant even though the forecast leading time was getting shorter.Therefore,in addition to the consideration of track forecast,the adjustment of forecasting conditions and multiple models should also be analyzed.Strong wind rule,variable pressure and South Asia high can be used as the basis for judging the moving direction of typhoon.The terrain sensitivity test shows that,the underlying mountain topography has a certain impact on the track of weak typhoon.The intensity of the typhoon is weak and the wind circle radius of the strong wind is small.It experiences a short weakening(5:00—16:00 on the 6th) and strengthening process along the coast of Fujian province.The strong wind in the central coast during this period is formed by the interaction of different systems.The tropical depression upgrades relatively late,and can be considered to be upgraded to a tropical storm in advance around 17:00.

关 键 词：台风“卢碧” 强风法则 南亚高压 地形敏感性试验 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]