共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用  

Multiple application of shared socioeconomic pathways in land use,energy and carbon emission research

作　　者：景丞 姜彤[1,2] 苏布达 王艳君[2] 王国杰 黄金龙 高妙妮[1,2] 林齐根 刘述慈[1] 翟建青 JING Cheng;JIANG Tong;SU Buda;WANG Yanjun;WANG Guojie;HUANG Jinlong;GAO Miaoni;LIN Qigen;LIU Shuci;ZHAI Jianqing(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Geographical Science/Institute for Disaster Risk Management,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Research Institute of Climate and Environmental Governance,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气候与环境治理研究院,江苏南京210044 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2022年第3期397-413,共17页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：江苏省教育发展专项双一流灾害风险管理研究院运行经费(1521582201002);院长基金(1521582201001);人才启动费(1521582201006)。

摘　　要：情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究,2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出了共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSPs)。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景,SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程;阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果;探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系;并展望了SSPs应用前景。Scenario is an important tool for climate change projection.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)developed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)in 2010,aiming to scientifically support the Fifth Assessment Report(IPCC AR5),Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP),Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISI-MIP),and other international programs.As climate scenarios developed from a socioeconomic perspective,SSPs facilitate climate change research including physical science,impacts,vulnerability,risk,adaptation and mitigation.In this paper,we first describe the development process of SSPs and their possible application.Next,the simulation and global and Chinese results of population and economy,land use,energy and carbon emissions are simulated and projected.In particular,the carbon emission trajectories under different SSPs and their relationship with the“two-carbon”target are also quantified on scales for both the world and China.Finally,a prospective application of SSPs is presented.

关 键 词：共享社会经济路径 土地利用 能源 碳排放路径 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F416.2F113