气象干旱指数在河北省的适用性分析  

Applicability of Meteorological Drought Indicesin Hebei Province

作　　者：米蔚峰 邱建秀 MI Weifeng;QIU Jianxiu(Guangdong Povincial Key Laboratory of Urbanisarion and Geo-Simulation,School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yar-Sen Unicersity,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Prorincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [2]广东省公共安全与灾害工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水文》2022年第3期53-60,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971031,51779278);广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310154)。

摘　　要：基于河北省1974-2014年的气象观测和旱情资料,分析降水距平百分率PA、相对湿润指数M、标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI这四种常用气象干旱指数在河北省的适用性。通过对比四种干旱指数与旱情资料、农作物产量等资料的一致性,结果表明:(1)从干旱事件分类的总体准确度来看,M指数最好,PA和SPEI指数监测效果次之。(2)四种干旱指数都能较好地监测河北省历年旱灾发生的空间范围,表现在四种指数的干旱站次比分别与旱灾受灾比和旱灾成灾比均有较强的相关性。(3)7月份SPEI和SPI指数均可较好地预报河北省雨养区(半干旱区)内的玉米产量。研究结论可为干旱防灾减灾及确保粮食生产安全提供理论依据。Based on meteorological observation and drought record of Hebei Province from 1974 to 2014, this study analyzed the applicability of four commonly-used meteorological drought indices, namely PA(Percentage of Precipitation Anomalies), M(Relative Moisture Index), SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index) and SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) in Hebei Province. By comparing the consistency between drought indices and drought record and the consistency between drought indices and crop yield, it is found that:(1) for the overall accuracy of drought event classification, M index outperforms other three indices,followed by PA and SPEI;(2) the four drought indices can consistently detect the spatial extent of drought occurrence in Hebei Province, as the drought stations proportion shows strong correlation with the drought-affected area proportion and the drought-disaster area proportion;(3) SPI and SPEI of July are suitable for maize yield prediction in the rain-fed area of Hebei Province(semi-arid region). The conclusions of this study can provide theoretical basis for drought mitigation and further ensure grain production capacity.

关 键 词：气象干旱 降水距平百分率 相对湿润指数 标准化降水指数 标准化降水蒸散指数 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]