海南岛水资源承载力分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Water Capacity in Hainan Island

作　　者：杨波[1] 王文[1] 秦大军 任丙南[1] 耿静[1] 杨秀敏[1] YANG Bo;WANG Wen;QIN Dajun;REN Bingnan;GENG Jing;YANG Xiumin(Zhai Mingguo Academician Work Staton,Sanya Uniuersity,Sanya 572022,China;Insinute of Geology and Geophysics,Academy of Science,Bejing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]三亚学院翟明国院士工作站,海南三亚572022 [2]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《水文》2022年第3期78-83,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：海南省基础与应用基础研究计划(自然科学领域)高层次人才项目(2019RC256)。

摘　　要：根据近21年来海南水资源可利用量大小,采用适线法估算不同保证率下可用于产业发展的水资源可利用量,同时,通过建立的万元GDP综合用水量与GDP的定量关系对海南万元GDP综合用水量进行预测;最后,通过可用于产业发展的水资源量与万元GDP综合用水量的比值表达和预测海南水资源可承载的经济规模,采用水资源可承载的经济规模与人均GDP的比值表达海南水资源可承载的人口,从而实现海南水资源承载力的表达和预测。结果表明,在保证率为95%、90%、75%和50%条件下,用于海南全岛产业发展的水资源量分别为59.28亿m^(3)、69.57亿m^(3)、88.86亿m^(3)和113.56亿m^(3),万元GDP综合用水量与GDP定量关系可用幂函数来表达。在同一保证率下,海南岛可承载经济规模随时间呈现明显上升趋势,但可承载人口规模基本维持平稳。从全年和全岛的平均尺度来看,研究期限内个别年份接近临界承载状态,其他年份均处于可载状态。The water resources available for industrial development under different guarantee rates was estimated by using the line fitting method, Hainan’s GDP and per capita GDP were forecasted by ARIMA model, and the predication method of comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP was established. Finally, the ratio of the water resources of industrial development to the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP was used to predict the scale economy capacity of water resources, and the ratio of scale economy to per capita GDP was used to express the population capacity of water resources, so as to achieve the prediction of water capacity in Hainan. The results show that under the conditions of 95%, 90%, 75% and 50% assurance rate, the water resources for industrial development of Hainan are 59.28×108m~3, 69.57×108m~3, 88.86×108m~3, and 113.53×108m~3 respectively. The quantitative relationship between comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP and GDP could be expressed by power function.Furthmore, under the same guarantee rate, the scale economy shows an obvious upward trend, but the population capacity basically remained stable. For the annual and the whole-island scale, the water capacity of Hainan Island is in the affordability for some years.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 水资源可利用量 万元GDP综合用水量 经济规模 海南岛 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]