土地确权与农村劳动力迁移——来自省级面板数据的证据  

Land certification and rural labor migration in China:Evidence from provincial panel data

作　　者：史常亮 张益 SHI Changliang;ZHANG Yi(Institute of Economics,Hunan Academy of Social Sciences,Changsha 410003,China;Research Center for Rural Economy,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100810,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省社会科学院经济研究所,长沙410003 [2]农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《资源科学》2022年第4期647-659,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2021JJ40299);湖南省社会科学院2019年度智库研究专项重点项目(19ZHB03)。

摘　　要：关于土地确权会促进还是抑制农村劳动力迁移,现有研究尚无定论。本文构建理论模型,将土地确权对劳动力迁移的影响分解为失地风险降低效应和土地投资激励效应,利用2005—2019年中国30个省份的面板数据和双向固定效应模型,从宏观视角对二者关系进行检验;在此基础上,引入面板门槛模型探讨该影响效果在不同土地流转市场发展水平下的异质性。结果表明:(1)中国土地确权主要发挥了失地风险降低效应,有助于促进农村劳动力向外迁移,尤其是对常年外出和省外迁移的促进效应更大。(2)土地确权对劳动力迁移的促进作用在东部和南方地区较强,而在中、西部和北方地区则不显著。(3)土地确权对劳动力迁移的影响存在以土地流转市场发展水平为前提的门槛效应,当土地流转市场发展水平较低时,确权对劳动力迁移无显著影响;只有当土地流转市场发展水平达到一定门槛值后,确权才会对劳动力迁移起到显著促进作用。本文的政策含义在于,要以确权推动农业剩余劳动力城市化迁移,除了明晰产权以外,还须同步推进土地流转市场建设。Existing studies are inconclusive about whether land certification will promote or inhibit rural labor migration.This study constructed a theoretical model that decomposes the effects of land certification on rural labor migration into land loss risk reduction effect and land investment incentive effect,and used the panel data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2005 to2019 and two-way fixed effects model to test the relationship between land loss risk reduction effect and land investment incentive effect from a macro perspective.On this basis,the threshold regression model was introduced to explore the heterogeneity of the effect under different land transfer market development levels.The research revealed that:(1)Land certification mainly generates land loss risk reduction effect and promotes rural labor migration.Especially for those who migrate perennially and outside the provinces,the enhancing effect can be more pronounced.(2)Regional heterogeneity analysis showed that the effect of land certification on rural labor migration is strongly positive in the eastern and southern regions,while in the central,western,and northern regions,this effect is less significant.(3)Land certification’s promoting impact on rural labor migration has a single threshold adjusting effect based on the development level of the land transfer market.When the land transfer market development level is low,there is no significant effect.Only when the development level of land transfer market reaches a certain threshold value,can land certification enhance the rural labor migration significantly.The policy implication is that in order to promote the rural-urban migration of surplus agricultural laborers by land certification,land transfer market construction must be promoted simultaneously in addition to clarifying property rights.

关 键 词：土地确权 土地产权安全 农村劳动力迁移 土地流转市场 门槛效应 调节效应 中国 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F323.6