亚太自由贸易协定对中国畜产品贸易效应影响——基于局部均衡实证  

The Effect of Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement on China’s Livestock Products——An Empirical Analysis Based on Partial Equilibrium

作　　者：王兴华[1] 武舜臣 赵敏[1] 剌美香[1] 丁丽芳[1] WANG Xinghua;WU Shunchen;ZHAO Min;LA Meixiang;DING Lifang(College of Agricultural Economics and Management,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学农业经济管理学院,山西太谷030801 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2022年第2期140-144,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(19CJL016);山西省政府重大决策咨询课题(ZB20211902);山西农业大学哲学社会科学基金项目(博士科研启动)(2021ZBQ01)。

摘　　要：为模拟亚太自由贸易协定对中国不同畜产品产生的贸易创造、贸易转移以及福利效应,进一步识别关税削减不同阶段具体的敏感产品,设定短期、中期、长期三个不同的关税减让场景,采用局部均衡进行实证分析。结果表明:关税削减有利于中国畜产品的对外出口,且出口增长率均高于进口增长率。肉及食用杂碎、动物毛产品、活动物产品出口增长列前三位。关税削减降低了中国关税收入、提升了福利收入。关税削减力度递进加深有效提升了中国与区内成员的畜产品贸易总效应。这证实了在自贸谈判要价中,充分利用关税削减对提升中国重点畜产品国际竞争力具有现实指导意义。By partial equilibrium analysis,three different scenarios of tariff concessions are set up to simulate trade creation,trade diversion and welfare effects contributed to Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement(APFTA)on different livestock products in China,and to further identify different effects on specific sensitive products and tariff reduction processes.The results show that tariff reduction is beneficial to the trade of China’s livestock products,and export growth rate of different livestock products is higher than import growth rate.Tariff reduction reduces China’s tariff revenue and raise welfare income.It is of policy significance for China in a bid for free trade negotiation to raise the international competitiveness of China’s key livestock products.

关 键 词：亚太自由贸易协定 畜产品 贸易创造 贸易转移 局部均衡 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]