黑龙江省大豆产业集群风险评估研究  

Study on the Risk Assessment of Soybean Industry Cluster in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：王昱旻 沈立新 李聪聪 王聪 WANG Yumin;SHEN Lixin;LI Congcong;WANG Cong(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2022年第2期156-160,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：欧盟H2020项目(H2020-MSCA-RISE);辽宁省社会科学规划基金(L19BJL005)。

摘　　要：农业产业集群在现代农业的发展中占据重要地位,其发展程度影响农业产业的发展水平。随着我国农业产业集群近年来的迅速发展,伴随的风险也日渐显露。其中我国大豆产业集群风险抵御能力低是一个亟待解决的重要课题。面对大豆产业集群的风险,集群决策者需要根据风险的可控程度与风险的强弱来对其进行控制。本文以黑龙江省大豆产业集群为例,使用德尔菲法建立风险评价指标体系,通过决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)、网络分析法(ANP)和层次分析法(AHP)构建风险评价模型。研究结果显示大豆产品(如豆粕、油脂)的需求量、产品品质、政府对产业集群的调控等因素是我国大豆产业集群目前面临的主要风险。此项研究可为大豆产业集群的发展决策提供参考。Agricultural industry cluster plays a key role in the development of modern agriculture,and its maturity degree decides the progress level of agricultural industry.With the advanced expansion of China’s agricultural industry cluster in recent years,the risks associated with its progressive situation are gradually exploded.The serious crisis that the resilience of China’s soybean industry cluster is one of the important questions we must face to now.The policy-makers in soybean industry cluster should improve the strategy based on the controllable risk and of its strength.In this paper,taking Heilongjiang soybean industrial cluster as an example,the Delphi method is used to establish the risk evaluation index system,and the risk evaluation model is constructed by Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL),Analytic Network Process(ANP)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The results declare that the demand and quality of soybean products(such as soybean dregs and fat)and the government’s regulation are the main risks in China’s soybean industry cluster.The results is expected to provide assistance to the policy-makers in improving strategy of the industry cluster.

关 键 词：大豆产业集群 决策实验室分析法 网络分析法 层次分析法 风险评价 

分 类 号：S565.1[农业科学—作物学]