全国活动性肺结核报告发病率变动趋势及预测研究  

Study on the trend and prediction of reported incidence of national active pulmonary tuberculosis in China

作　　者：康万里[1] 李恬静 王赛赛 李常华 赵秋月[1] 郑素华[1] 刘洋[1] KANG Wan-li;LI Tian-jing;WANG Sai-sai;LI Chang-hua;ZHAO Qiu-yue;ZHENG Su-hua;LIU Yang(Department of Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing Tuberculosis and Thoracic Tumor Research Institute/Beijing Chest Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 101149,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市结核病胸部肿瘤研究所/首都医科大学附属北京胸科医院疾病预防控制处,北京101149

出　　处：《中国防痨杂志》2022年第7期681-684,共4页Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis

基　　金：通州区高层次人才发展支持计划(YHLD2019035)。

摘　　要：目的:研究全国2009—2018年活动性肺结核报告发病率的变动趋势,并对2019—2022年报告发病率及终止结核病流行状况进行预测。方法:收集全国2009—2020年活动性肺结核报告发病率监测资料,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验研究全国2009—2018年活动性肺结核报告发病率的变动趋势,并应用灰色模型GM(1,1)对全国活动性肺结核报告发病率进行预测。结果:全国活动性肺结核报告发病率从2009年的81.09/10万下降到2018年的59.27/10万,10年间下降了26.91%,10年间年均递降率为3.42%,总体呈下降趋势(Mann-Kendall趋势检验,Z=-3.940,P<0.001)。灰色模型GM(1,1)拟合结果显示,预测值和实测值平均相对误差为0.8255%,后验差比值C=0.097,小误差概率值P=1,说明拟合精度为优,可以用于外推预测。应用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测全国2019—2022年活动性肺结核报告发病率结果为56.7673/10万、55.1394/10万、53.5581/10万、52.0222/10万。如结核病防控策略维持不变,按照年均递降率为3.42%计算,到2030年全国活动性肺结核报告发病率为39.04/10万,到2035年为32.80/10万。结论:2009—2018年全国活动性肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,如结核病防控策略维持不变,实现世界卫生组织终止结核病流行策略难度很大。Objective:To study the trend of reported incidence of national active pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in 2009—2018,and predict the reported incidence from 2019 to 2022 and the status of ending the TB epidemic in China.Methods:The active PTB reported incidence between 2009 and 2020 were collected.The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the trend of national active tuberculosis between 2009 to 2018 and grey model(GM(1,1))was used to predict the reported incidence.Results:The reported incidence of active PTB in China decreased from 81.09/100000 in 2009 to 59.27/100000 in 2018 with a downward trend according to the Mann-Kendall trend test(Z=-3.940,P<0.001).In the past 10 years,it has decreased by 26.91%and the average annual decline rate is 3.42%.The grey model GM(1,1)has good fitting accuracy and could be used to predict,with an average relative error of 0.8255%,posteriori error ratio C=0.097,and small error probability P=1 between predicted value and actual value.Predicted by the GM(1,1)model,the reported incidence of active PTB in China from 2019 to 2022 were 56.7673/100000,55.1394/100000,53.5581/100000 and 52.0222/100000,respectively.If the concurrent TB control strategy remains unchanged,the reported incidence of active PTB will be 39.04/100000 in 2030 and 32.80/100000 in 2035 based on the average annual decline rate of 3.42%.Conclusion:From 2009 to 2018,the active PTB reported incidence in China showed a downward trend.It is difficult to achieve the WHO End TB Strategy if the current control strategy remains unchanged.

关 键 词：结核 肺 发病率 预测 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]