国际牛羊肉市场发展趋势及我国面临的风险点分析  

Beef and mutton market:global market trend,risk and countermeasures for Chinese market

作　　者：张秀青 谢兰兰 Zhang Xiuqing;Xie Lanlan

机构地区：[1]中国国际经济交流中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第2期79-83,200,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：农业农村部“农业贸易预警救济技术咨询”项目支持。

摘　　要：随着我国经济的发展和人们生活水平的提高,牛羊肉越来越受到城乡居民的喜爱,消费需求不断增长,由于国内产能不足,国际市场是我国牛羊肉需求的重要补充。近年来,国际牛羊肉市场表现出消费增速快于生产;全球产销重心向亚洲和非洲转移,产销集中度趋于下降;牛肉贸易活跃度较高,而羊肉贸易集中度较高;市场不确定性因素增多;价格窄幅波动且处于历史相对高位等特征。研究发现,我国牛羊肉市场面临以下风险点:国内消费需求增长快,生产相对滞后,国内价格不断上涨,国内外价差扩大需求与价格驱动下牛羊肉进口增长快,进口依存度持续扩大。建议加强我国牛羊肉市场宏观调控、推进国内牛羊肉产业扩能提质增效、继续拓宽多元化进口渠道、加强牛羊肉市场监测预警。Beef and mutton are both important food categories for the consumption upgrading of Chinese residents.Driven by economic development and the living standards improvement,domestic consumption is increasing rapidly which are met by both domestic and global market.Meanwhile,domestic underproduction highlights the importance of the global market,which features as follows:consumption grows faster than production;global production and sales focus is shifting to Asia and Africa with the concentration trend declining;beef trade is more active and mutton trade is more concentrated;market uncertainty is on the rise;prices move within a tight range and at relative historical high levels.For the domestic market,the study shows that:demand is increasing rapidly with a production lag;prices keep rising and the widening price gap drives a rapid imports growth and a rising imports dependence.Based on above,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.Government should strengthen the macro-control of the beef and mutton market;upgrade the sector to expand the production ability;continue to diversify import sources;strengthen market monitoring and early warning system.

关 键 词：国际市场 牛羊肉贸易 牛羊肉供需 市场风险点 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]